BETFLYAISIGN IN
TAMPA BAYTB
67-46 · +1 AL EAST · W2 · 7-3 L10
@WED 3:10 PM ETCOL HOME PARK
45-69 · +5 NL WEST · L2 · 4-6 L10
COLORADOCOL
Weather
81°F · 8mph out to LF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 2-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Nick Martinez
RHP · TBPROBABLE
STUFF+99
ERA
2.77
IP
123.1
K/9
5.0
BB/9
1.5
WHIP
1.10
L5 STARTS3.19 ERA · 10% K · 2.7% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
31%
28%
20%
11%
SinkerChangeupCutter4-Seam FastballCurveballSlider
Tomoyuki Sugano
RHP · COLPROBABLE
STUFF+81
ERA
4.47
IP
102.2
K/9
5.1
BB/9
2.1
WHIP
1.26
L5 STARTS4.44 ERA · 14.7% K · 1.7% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
22%
20%
19%
11%
11%
10%
4-Seam FastballSplit-FingerSinkerSliderSweeperCutterCurveball
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETRays 61%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

TB COL

Game Markets

TB @ COL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

TB to win

61%

1st 5 Innings

COL F5

38%

Game Total

Over 8.5

79%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

79%

Run Line

COL -1.5

28%

Team Total

TB Over 4.5

73%

Team Total

COL Over 4.5

59%

THE READ

TB projects to outscore COL by 1.61 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: TB 7.25, COL 5.64
  • Nick Martinez (TB) vs Tomoyuki Sugano (COL)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
NM

Nick Martinez

TB SP · vs. COL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

9%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

0%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

92%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

26%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

80%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

68%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 2.5 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 2.5 strikeouts
  • 9% to reach 5+ against COL
TS

Tomoyuki Sugano

COL SP · vs. TB

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

9%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

0%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

86%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

29%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

84%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

74%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 2.4 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 2.4 strikeouts
  • 9% to reach 5+ against TB

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

NICK MARTINEZ SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how COL hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%12.1%OPS-against.666
vs Left-handedK%15.1%OPS-against.692
COL vs RHP (team)OPS.762K%21.7%

TOMOYUKI SUGANO SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TB hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%13.5%OPS-against.722
vs Left-handedK%13.5%OPS-against.894
TB vs RHP (team)OPS.755K%19.5%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

COL BATTERS vs NICK MARTINEZ

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

TB BATTERS vs TOMOYUKI SUGANO

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
TB 2·COL 0
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
TB 2·COL 0
2 played · 17 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
75%TB
TB 15 · COL 5 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-05TB 9-7 · Slugfest
2026-08-04TB 13-9 · Slugfest
2025-03-30TB 6-4
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
TB62¢ · 62%
COL43¢ · 43%
Total 11.5
Over52¢ · 52%
Under52¢ · 52%
Run line ±1.5
TB -1.5— · —
COL +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT11→11.5→11→10.5→11.5→11→16.5→11.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

TB OFFENSE

.304L15 team wOBA
-12 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG

COL OFFENSE

.323L15 team wOBA
+7 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG
— ENVIRONMENT81° · 8mph out to LF
COORS FIELD
112HR
HR factor1.12 · +
Runs factor1.18 · +
Doubles factor1.18 · +

Altitude — extreme run environment.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
81°F
Wind8 mph out to LF
Humidity25%
Rain0%

Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO