BETFLYAISIGN IN
ST. LOUISSTL
56-58 · +4 NL CENTRAL · L1 · 3-7 L10
@WED 7:05 PM ETNYY HOME PARK
64-50 · +2 AL EAST · W1 · 5-5 L10
NEW YORKNYY
Weather
79°F · 6mph out to LF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 1-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Andre Pallante
RHP · STLPROBABLE
STUFF+98
ERA
3.72
IP
118.2
K/9
6.5
BB/9
2.6
WHIP
1.22
L5 STARTS3.49 ERA · 14.8% K · 6.6% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
30%
30%
19%
18%
4-Seam FastballSliderSinkerCurveball
Will Warren
RHP · NYYPROBABLE
STUFF+105
ERA
4.14
IP
108.2
K/9
9.0
BB/9
3.0
WHIP
1.36
L5 STARTS6.36 ERA · 21.4% K · 8.3% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
39%
28%
20%
11%
4-Seam FastballSinkerSweeperChangeupCurveball
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETYankees 56%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

STL NYY

Game Markets

STL @ NYY · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

NYY to win

56%

1st 5 Innings

NYY F5

46%

Game Total

Over 8.5

56%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

60%

Run Line

NYY -1.5

39%

Team Total

STL Over 4.5

46%

Team Total

NYY Over 4.5

50%

THE READ

NYY projects to outscore STL by 0.35 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: STL 4.65, NYY 4.99
  • Andre Pallante (STL) vs Will Warren (NYY)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
AP

Andre Pallante

STL SP · vs. NYY

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

27%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

12%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

93%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

55%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

76%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

64%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.5 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.5 strikeouts
  • 27% to reach 5+ against NYY
WW

Will Warren

NYY SP · vs. STL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

39%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

22%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

12%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

51%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

22%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

53%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

40%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.1 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.1 strikeouts
  • 39% to reach 5+ against STL

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

ANDRE PALLANTE SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how NYY hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%18.6%OPS-against.595
vs Left-handedK%16.2%OPS-against.731
NYY vs RHP (team)OPS.724K%24.2%

WILL WARREN SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how STL hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%28.2%OPS-against.740
vs Left-handedK%19.1%OPS-against.782
STL vs RHP (team)OPS.695K%21.4%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

NYY BATTERS vs ANDRE PALLANTE

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

STL BATTERS vs WILL WARREN

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
STL 1·NYY 1
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
STL 1·NYY 1
2 played · 17 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
57%STL
STL 17 · NYY 13 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-04NYY 2-0 · Pitchers duel
2026-08-03STL 13-7 · Blowout
2025-08-17NYY 8-4
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
STL44¢ · 44%
NYY60¢ · 60%
Total 8.5
Over55¢ · 55%
Under50¢ · 50%
Run line ±1.5
STL -1.5— · —
NYY +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT8.5→9→8.5→9→6.5→6→8.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

STL OFFENSE

.271L15 team wOBA
-45 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

NYY OFFENSE

.274L15 team wOBA
-42 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
— ENVIRONMENT79° · 6mph out to LF
YANKEE STADIUM
112HR
HR factor1.12 · +
Runs factor1.04 · neutral
Doubles factor0.92 · −

Short porch — LH HR heaven.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
79°F
Wind6 mph out to LF
Humidity73%
Rain8%

Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO