SAN DIEGOSD
59-55 · +3 NL WEST · W1 · 8-2 L10
@2026-08-05ARI HOME PARK
ARIZONAARI
Weather
108°F · 10mph out to RF
Home plate ump
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
4-game set · 1-0 so far in 2026
PITCHING MATCHUP
Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETPadres 54%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

SD ARI

Game Markets

SD @ ARI · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

SD to win

54%

1st 5 Innings

ARI F5

33%

Game Total

Over 8.5

49%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

51%

Run Line

ARI -1.5

28%

Team Total

SD Over 4.5

47%

Team Total

ARI Over 4.5

39%

THE READ

SD projects to outscore ARI by 0.75 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: SD 4.74, ARI 3.99
  • Casey Mize (SD) vs Mitch Bratt (ARI)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
CM

Casey Mize

SD SP · vs. ARI

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

53%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

36%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

22%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

12%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

6%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

45%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

19%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

42%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

30%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.9 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.9 strikeouts
  • 53% to reach 5+ against ARI
MB

Mitch Bratt

ARI SP · vs. SD

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

0%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

21%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

3%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

43%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

29%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 2.3 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 2.3 strikeouts
  • 8% to reach 5+ against SD

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

SPLITS THAT MATTER

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ARI hits LHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

ARI vs LHP (team)OPS.786K%16.8%

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how SD hits RHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

SD vs RHP (team)OPS.703K%22.2%
LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

CAREER MATCHUPS

ARI BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SD BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
SD 1·ARI 0
4-game set · gm 3 of 4
2026 SEASON
SD 4·ARI 0
10 played · 9 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
100%SD
SD 160 · ARI 0 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-05SD 9-4
2026-08-04AZ 5-1
2026-07-10AZ 3-1
MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
SD53¢ · 53%
ARI50¢ · 50%
Total 9.5
Over51¢ · 51%
Under55¢ · 55%
Run line ±1.5
SD -1.5 ·
ARI +1.5 ·
First 5 innings
O 4.5 ·
U 4.5 ·
TOTAL MOVEMENT98.5913.59.5last 12h
LINEUP FORM · L15

SD OFFENSE

.337L15 team wOBA
+21 pts vs LG AVG · TOP 6

ARI OFFENSE

.327L15 team wOBA
+11 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG
ENVIRONMENT108° · 10mph out to RF
CHASE FIELD
104HR
HR factor1.04 · neutral
Runs factor1.02 · neutral
Doubles factor1.05 · +

Slight offensive tilt.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
108°F
Wind10 mph out to RF
Humidity22%
Rain1%

Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

PADRES 54%

Mean score sim 4.74.0 · projected total 8.7 runs · pre-lineup estimate — refreshes when lineups post

That's the simulation. The called reads — which markets the engine actually likes at today's prices, with the reasoning — publish to Edge and Sharp members.

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