BETFLYAISIGN IN
PITTSBURGHPIT
57-58 · +3 NL CENTRAL · L1 · 4-6 L10
@WED 7:40 PM ETMIL HOME PARK
70-43 · +1 NL CENTRAL · W1 · 6-4 L10
MILWAUKEEMIL
Weather
72°F · 7mph out to LF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
4-game set · 1-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Paul Skenes
RHP · PITPROBABLE
STUFF+99
ERA
3.90
IP
124.2
K/9
11.3
BB/9
2.3
WHIP
1.11
L5 STARTS4.96 ERA · 31.6% K · 8.5% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
39%
16%
16%
11%
11%
4-Seam FastballChangeupSweeperSplit-FingerSinkerSlider
Kyle Harrison
LHP · MILPROBABLE
STUFF+106
ERA
3.01
IP
83.2
K/9
10.9
BB/9
2.1
WHIP
1.08
L5 STARTS3.86 ERA · 25.3% K · 2.1% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
59%
30%
9%
4-Seam FastballSlurveChangeup
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETBrewers 57%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

PIT MIL

Game Markets

PIT @ MIL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

MIL to win

57%

1st 5 Innings

MIL F5

42%

Game Total

Over 8.5

34%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

34%

Run Line

MIL -1.5

37%

Team Total

PIT Over 4.5

29%

Team Total

MIL Over 4.5

35%

THE READ

MIL projects to outscore PIT by 0.44 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: PIT 3.43, MIL 3.87
  • Paul Skenes (PIT) vs Kyle Harrison (MIL)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
PS

Paul Skenes

PIT SP · vs. MIL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

80%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

65%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

48%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

32%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

19%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

67%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

29%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

47%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

33%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.5 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 6.5 strikeouts
  • 80% to reach 5+ against MIL
KH

Kyle Harrison

MIL SP · vs. PIT

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

76%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

59%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

41%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

25%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

13%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

56%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

15%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

36%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

23%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.1 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 6.1 strikeouts
  • 76% to reach 5+ against PIT

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

PAUL SKENES SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIL hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%33.0%OPS-against.682
vs Left-handedK%28.8%OPS-against.658
MIL vs LHP (team)OPS.685K%20.9%

KYLE HARRISON SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how PIT hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%30.9%OPS-against.658
vs Left-handedK%26.5%OPS-against.602
PIT vs RHP (team)OPS.772K%23.7%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

MIL BATTERS vs PAUL SKENES

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

PIT BATTERS vs KYLE HARRISON

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
PIT 1·MIL 1
4-game set · gm 3 of 4
2026 SEASON
PIT 7·MIL 2
9 played · 10 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
58%MIL
PIT 118 · MIL 162 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-04MIL 4-2
2026-08-03PIT 4-3 · One-run game
2026-07-12PIT 14-5 · Blowout
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
PIT47¢ · 47%
MIL57¢ · 57%
Total 7.5
Over50¢ · 50%
Under55¢ · 55%
Run line ±1.5
PIT -1.5— · —
MIL +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT7.5→7→7.5→7→6.5→7.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

PIT OFFENSE

.267L15 team wOBA
-49 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

MIL OFFENSE

.315L15 team wOBA
-1 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD
— ENVIRONMENT72° · 7mph out to LF
AMERICAN FAMILY FIELD
108HR
HR factor1.08 · +
Runs factor1.00 · neutral
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

HR-friendly with roof closed.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
72°F
Wind7 mph out to LF
Humidity86%
Rain22%

Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO