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NEW YORKNYM
48-66 · +5 NL EAST · W1 · 5-5 L10
@WED 6:40 PM ETCLE HOME PARK
57-57 · +2 AL CENTRAL · L1 · 3-7 L10
CLEVELANDCLE
Weather
82°F · 8mph in from CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 1-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Christian Scott
RHP · NYMPROBABLE
STUFF+107
ERA
2.99
IP
69.1
K/9
11.0
BB/9
3.9
WHIP
1.24
L5 STARTS2.69 ERA · 32.3% K · 9.1% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
50%
23%
17%
4-Seam FastballSweeperCutterSlider
Tanner Bibee
RHP · CLEPROBABLE
STUFF+105
ERA
3.81
IP
132.1
K/9
6.8
BB/9
2.6
WHIP
1.15
L5 STARTS4.30 ERA · 13.5% K · 7.1% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
25%
23%
22%
16%
10%
CutterSinker4-Seam FastballChangeupCurveballSweeper
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS1 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Tanner Bibee · Under 17.5 <18 Outs

quick-hook risk: walks + traffic shorten the start

+135 Bovada43% book60% +17pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETMets 51%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

NYM CLE

Game Markets

NYM @ CLE · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

NYM to win

51%

1st 5 Innings

CLE F5

39%

Game Total

Over 8.5

48%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

50%

Run Line

CLE -1.5

32%

Team Total

NYM Over 4.5

45%

Team Total

CLE Over 4.5

40%

THE READ

NYM projects to outscore CLE by 0.34 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: NYM 4.49, CLE 4.15
  • Christian Scott (NYM) vs Tanner Bibee (CLE)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
CS

Christian Scott

NYM SP · vs. CLE

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

61%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

43%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

26%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

13%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

7%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

38%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

8%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

40%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

27%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.2 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.2 strikeouts
  • 61% to reach 5+ against CLE
TB

Tanner Bibee

CLE SP · vs. NYM

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

45%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

27%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

3%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

90%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

65%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

71%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

58%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.4 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.4 strikeouts
  • 45% to reach 5+ against NYM

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

CHRISTIAN SCOTT SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CLE hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%28.1%OPS-against.667
vs Left-handedK%29.3%OPS-against.652
CLE vs RHP (team)OPS.691K%21.8%

TANNER BIBEE SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how NYM hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%15.4%OPS-against.680
vs Left-handedK%21.1%OPS-against.686
NYM vs RHP (team)OPS.678K%22.4%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

CLE BATTERS vs CHRISTIAN SCOTT

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

NYM BATTERS vs TANNER BIBEE

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
NYM 1·CLE 0
3-game set · gm 2 of 3
2026 SEASON
NYM 1·CLE 0
1 played · 18 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
61%NYM
NYM 14 · CLE 9 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-04NYM 6-2
2025-08-06CLE 4-1
2025-08-05CLE 3-2 · One-run game
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
NYM54¢ · 54%
CLE50¢ · 50%
Total 8
Over52¢ · 52%
Under53¢ · 53%
Run line ±1.5
NYM -1.5— · —
CLE +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT7.5→8.5→10.5→10→8→10.5→8last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

NYM OFFENSE

.297L15 team wOBA
-19 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG

CLE OFFENSE

.296L15 team wOBA
-20 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
— ENVIRONMENT82° · 8mph in from CF
PROGRESSIVE FIELD
92HR
HR factor0.92 · below avg
Runs factor0.96 · neutral
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

Pitcher-friendly.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
82°F
Wind8 mph in from CF
Humidity54%
Rain5%

Light wind in from CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

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