MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Trevor Rogers · Under 17.5 <18 Outs
bullpen-aggressive manager + struggling starter
Trevor Rogers · Under 5.5 <6 Pitcher Ks
stuff doesn't translate to Ks vs this lineup
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
LAA @ BAL · full-game reads
Moneyline
LAA to win
51%
1st 5 Innings
BAL F5
38%
Game Total
Over 8.5
48%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
47%
Run Line
BAL -1.5
32%
Team Total
LAA Over 4.5
45%
Team Total
BAL Over 4.5
40%
THE READ
LAA projects to outscore BAL by 0.36 runs across 5,000 trials.
LAA SP · vs. BAL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
85%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
70%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
52%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
35%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
21%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
85%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
31%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
54%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
38%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.7 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
BAL SP · vs. LAA
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
54%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
34%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
19%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
9%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
4%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
99%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
86%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
75%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
62%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.8 Ks.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how BAL hits LHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how LAA hits LHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Post-2022 wall changes suppress LH HR.
Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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