CHICAGOCWS
59-53 · +1 AL CENTRAL · L1 · 5-5 L10
@WED 7:10 PM ETBOS HOME PARK
61-51 · +3 AL EAST · W6 · 8-2 L10
BOSTONBOS
Weather
84°F · 6mph out to CF
Home plate ump
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-1 so far in 2026
PITCHING MATCHUP
Sean Burke
RHP · CWSPROBABLE
STUFF+98
ERA
3.04
IP
124.1
K/9
10.1
BB/9
2.7
WHIP
1.10
L5 STARTS1.15 ERA · 38.1% K · 3.4% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
37%
21%
18%
15%
4-Seam FastballCurveballSliderSinkerCutter
Sonny Gray
RHP · BOSPROBABLE
STUFF+103
ERA
2.93
IP
113.2
K/9
7.8
BB/9
2.4
WHIP
1.17
L5 STARTS3.60 ERA · 18.5% K · 7.3% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
20%
20%
19%
18%
17%
CutterSweeper4-Seam FastballSinkerCurveball
MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETRed Sox 51%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

CWS BOS

Game Markets

CWS @ BOS · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

CWS to win

49%

1st 5 Innings

BOS F5

41%

Game Total

Over 8.5

54%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

53%

Run Line

BOS -1.5

35%

Team Total

CWS Over 4.5

47%

Team Total

BOS Over 4.5

46%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 9.39 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: CWS 4.77, BOS 4.62
  • Sean Burke (CWS) vs Sonny Gray (BOS)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
SB

Sean Burke

CWS SP · vs. BOS

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

82%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

66%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

48%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

31%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

17%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

100%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

74%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

71%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

58%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.5 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 6.5 strikeouts
  • 82% to reach 5+ against BOS
SG

Sonny Gray

BOS SP · vs. CWS

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

45%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

27%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

14%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

97%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

60%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

73%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

60%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.4 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.4 strikeouts
  • 45% to reach 5+ against CWS

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

SPLITS THAT MATTER

SEAN BURKE SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how BOS hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%28.7%OPS-against.635
vs Left-handedK%27.1%OPS-against.666
BOS vs RHP (team)OPS.694K%22.2%

SONNY GRAY SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CWS hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%19.9%OPS-against.674
vs Left-handedK%22.0%OPS-against.692
CWS vs RHP (team)OPS.727K%23.5%
LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

CAREER MATCHUPS

BOS BATTERS vs SEAN BURKE

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

CWS BATTERS vs SONNY GRAY

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
CWS 0·BOS 1
3-game set · gm 2 of 3
2026 SEASON
CWS 0·BOS 4
4 played · 15 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
54%BOS
CWS 50 · BOS 58 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-04BOS 14-2 · Blowout
2026-07-09BOS 2-1 · Pitchers duel
2026-07-08BOS 5-0
MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
CWS50¢ · 50%
BOS54¢ · 54%
Total 8.5
Over52¢ · 52%
Under52¢ · 52%
Run line ±1.5
CWS -1.5 ·
BOS +1.5 ·
First 5 innings
O 4.5 ·
U 4.5 ·
TOTAL MOVEMENT98.5912.513.512.58.5last 12h
LINEUP FORM · L15

CWS OFFENSE

.288L15 team wOBA
-28 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

BOS OFFENSE

.327L15 team wOBA
+11 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG
ENVIRONMENT84° · 6mph out to CF
FENWAY PARK
96HR
HR factor0.96 · neutral
Runs factor1.08 · +
Doubles factor1.22 · +

Doubles factory (Green Monster).

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
84°F
Wind6 mph out to CF
Humidity41%
Rain1%

Light wind out to CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO