BETFLYAISIGN IN
WASHINGTONWSH
55-59 · +4 NL EAST · L6 · 3-7 L10
@TUE 6:40 PM ETPHI HOME PARK
60-53 · +2 NL EAST · W3 · 4-6 L10
PHILADELPHIAPHI
Weather
84°F · 7mph out to LF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
4-game set · 0-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Zack Littell
RHP · WSHPROBABLE
STUFF+83
ERA
4.94
IP
105.2
K/9
5.8
BB/9
2.9
WHIP
1.34
L5 STARTS3.93 ERA · 17.9% K · 8.5% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
29%
28%
19%
14%
9%
Slider4-Seam FastballSplit-FingerSinkerSweeper
Jesús Luzardo
LHP · PHIPROBABLE
STUFF+111
ERA
3.57
IP
128.2
K/9
11.0
BB/9
2.9
WHIP
1.19
L5 STARTS2.60 ERA · 33.3% K · 6.5% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
37%
25%
21%
18%
Sweeper4-Seam FastballChangeupSinker
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETPhillies 75%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

WSH PHI

Game Markets

WSH @ PHI · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

PHI to win

75%

1st 5 Innings

PHI F5

67%

Game Total

Over 8.5

48%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

53%

Run Line

PHI -1.5

59%

Team Total

WSH Over 4.5

26%

Team Total

PHI Over 4.5

58%

THE READ

PHI projects to outscore WSH by 2.44 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: WSH 3.15, PHI 5.60
  • Zack Littell (WSH) vs Jesús Luzardo (PHI)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
ZL

Zack Littell

WSH SP · vs. PHI

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

16%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

85%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

40%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

78%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

66%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 2.8 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 2.8 strikeouts
  • 16% to reach 5+ against PHI
JL

Jesús Luzardo

PHI SP · vs. WSH

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

95%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

88%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

78%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

64%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

47%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

96%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

66%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

43%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

28%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 8.4 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 8.4 strikeouts
  • 95% to reach 5+ against WSH

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

ZACK LITTELL SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how PHI hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%17.1%OPS-against.700
vs Left-handedK%13.3%OPS-against.887
PHI vs LHP (team)OPS.693K%23.8%

JESÚS LUZARDO SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how WSH hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%28.0%OPS-against.743
vs Left-handedK%32.8%OPS-against.403
WSH vs RHP (team)OPS.762K%20.4%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

PHI BATTERS vs ZACK LITTELL

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

WSH BATTERS vs JESÚS LUZARDO

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
WSH 0·PHI 1
4-game set · gm 2 of 4
2026 SEASON
WSH 3·PHI 7
10 played · 9 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
52%PHI
WSH 143 · PHI 154 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-03PHI 6-3
2026-06-25PHI 10-5 · Slugfest
2026-06-24PHI 5-4 · One-run game
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
WSH32¢ · 32%
PHI71¢ · 71%
Total 9
Over51¢ · 51%
Under53¢ · 53%
Run line ±1.5
WSH -1.5— · —
PHI +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT9→9.5→9→8.5→9last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

WSH OFFENSE

.343L15 team wOBA
+27 pts vs LG AVG · TOP 6

PHI OFFENSE

.322L15 team wOBA
+6 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG
— ENVIRONMENT84° · 7mph out to LF
CITIZENS BANK PARK
110HR
HR factor1.10 · +
Runs factor1.02 · neutral
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

HR-friendly.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
84°F
Wind7 mph out to LF
Humidity59%
Rain0%

Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO