Not cataloged
MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Trey Yesavage · Over 5.5 6+ Ks
K-monster arsenal
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
TOR @ HOU · full-game reads
Moneyline
TOR to win
50%
1st 5 Innings
HOU F5
39%
Game Total
Over 8.5
40%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
44%
Run Line
HOU -1.5
33%
Team Total
TOR Over 4.5
38%
Team Total
HOU Over 4.5
35%
THE READ
The sim splits this one — 7.85 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.
TOR SP · vs. HOU
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
78%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
62%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
45%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
29%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
17%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
74%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
35%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
47%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
32%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.3 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
HOU SP · vs. TOR
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
20%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
9%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
4%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
50%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
16%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
48%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
34%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.1 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how HOU hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TOR hits RHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Neutral — Crawford Boxes LF-friendly.
Light wind out to CF · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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