BETFLYAISIGN IN
TAMPA BAYTB
66-46 · +1 AL EAST · W1 · 7-3 L10
@TUE 8:40 PM ETCOL HOME PARK
45-68 · +5 NL WEST · L1 · 4-6 L10
COLORADOCOL
Weather
77°F · 11mph out to LF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 1-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Freddy Peralta
RHP · TBPROBABLE
STUFF+96
ERA
4.99
IP
113.2
K/9
8.9
BB/9
3.8
WHIP
1.48
L5 STARTS7.15 ERA · 22.3% K · 11.6% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
53%
22%
15%
4-Seam FastballChangeupCurveballSliderSweeper
Gabriel Hughes
RHP · COLPROBABLE
STUFF+—
ERA
3.33
IP
24.1
K/9
7.8
BB/9
2.6
WHIP
1.19
L5 STARTS3.36 ERA · 21.2% K · 7.1% BB
PITCH MIX

Not cataloged

— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETRays 57%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

TB COL

Game Markets

TB @ COL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

TB to win

57%

1st 5 Innings

COL F5

41%

Game Total

Over 8.5

59%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

57%

Run Line

COL -1.5

28%

Team Total

TB Over 4.5

56%

Team Total

COL Over 4.5

44%

THE READ

TB projects to outscore COL by 1.00 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: TB 5.49, COL 4.49
  • Freddy Peralta (TB) vs Gabriel Hughes (COL)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
FP

Freddy Peralta

TB SP · vs. COL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

48%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

27%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

13%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

23%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

0%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

42%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

28%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.5 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.5 strikeouts
  • 48% to reach 5+ against COL
GH

Gabriel Hughes

COL SP · vs. TB

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

24%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

12%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

54%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

19%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

62%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

49%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.3 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.3 strikeouts
  • 24% to reach 5+ against TB

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

FREDDY PERALTA SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how COL hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%21.2%OPS-against.742
vs Left-handedK%22.6%OPS-against.811
COL vs RHP (team)OPS.759K%21.8%

GABRIEL HUGHES SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TB hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%27.5%OPS-against.639
vs Left-handedK%16.9%OPS-against.633
TB vs RHP (team)OPS.756K%19.4%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

COL BATTERS vs FREDDY PERALTA

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

TB BATTERS vs GABRIEL HUGHES

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
TB 1·COL 0
3-game set · gm 2 of 3
2026 SEASON
TB 1·COL 0
1 played · 18 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
74%TB
TB 14 · COL 5 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-04TB 13-9 · Slugfest
2025-03-30TB 6-4
2025-03-29COL 2-1 · Pitchers duel
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
TB59¢ · 59%
COL44¢ · 44%
Total 11.5
Over52¢ · 52%
Under52¢ · 52%
Run line ±1.5
TB -1.5— · —
COL +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT11.5→11→11.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

TB OFFENSE

.304L15 team wOBA
-12 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG

COL OFFENSE

.315L15 team wOBA
-1 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD
— ENVIRONMENT77° · 11mph out to LF
COORS FIELD
112HR
HR factor1.12 · +
Runs factor1.18 · +
Doubles factor1.18 · +

Altitude — extreme run environment.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
77°F
Wind11 mph out to LF
Humidity37%
Rain10%

Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO