BETFLYAISIGN IN
ST. LOUISSTL
56-57 · +4 NL CENTRAL · W2 · 4-6 L10
@TUE 7:05 PM ETNYY HOME PARK
63-50 · +2 AL EAST · L1 · 5-5 L10
NEW YORKNYY
Weather
78°F · 3mph out to LF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 1-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Hunter Dobbins
RHP · STLPROBABLE
STUFF+100
ERA
3.74
IP
33.2
K/9
8.6
BB/9
2.9
WHIP
1.34
L5 STARTS3.57 ERA · 22% K · 5.5% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
35%
19%
13%
13%
11%
4-Seam FastballSliderSinkerSweeperSplit-Finger
Ryan Weathers
LHP · NYYPROBABLE
STUFF+101
ERA
3.99
IP
115.0
K/9
9.9
BB/9
2.6
WHIP
1.24
L5 STARTS3.88 ERA · 24.3% K · 7% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
28%
24%
20%
18%
10%
4-Seam FastballChangeupSweeperSinkerSlider
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETYankees 58%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

STL NYY

Game Markets

STL @ NYY · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

NYY to win

58%

1st 5 Innings

NYY F5

49%

Game Total

Over 8.5

52%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

54%

Run Line

NYY -1.5

42%

Team Total

STL Over 4.5

41%

Team Total

NYY Over 4.5

49%

THE READ

NYY projects to outscore STL by 0.65 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: STL 4.24, NYY 4.89
  • Hunter Dobbins (STL) vs Ryan Weathers (NYY)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
HD

Hunter Dobbins

STL SP · vs. NYY

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

59%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

39%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

23%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

12%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

5%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

100%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

94%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

81%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

69%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.1 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.1 strikeouts
  • 59% to reach 5+ against NYY
RW

Ryan Weathers

NYY SP · vs. STL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

71%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

53%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

36%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

23%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

12%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

68%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

31%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

51%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

37%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.8 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.8 strikeouts
  • 71% to reach 5+ against STL

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

HUNTER DOBBINS SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how NYY hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%25.0%OPS-against.832
vs Left-handedK%19.7%OPS-against.634
NYY vs LHP (team)OPS.723K%24.7%

RYAN WEATHERS SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how STL hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%25.3%OPS-against.707
vs Left-handedK%28.8%OPS-against.725
STL vs RHP (team)OPS.695K%21.4%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

NYY BATTERS vs HUNTER DOBBINS

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

STL BATTERS vs RYAN WEATHERS

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
STL 1·NYY 0
3-game set · gm 2 of 3
2026 SEASON
STL 1·NYY 0
1 played · 18 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
59%STL
STL 17 · NYY 12 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-03STL 13-7 · Blowout
2025-08-17NYY 8-4
2025-08-16NYY 12-8 · Slugfest
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
STL41¢ · 41%
NYY64¢ · 64%
Total 8
Over53¢ · 53%
Under51¢ · 51%
Run line ±1.5
STL -1.5— · —
NYY +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT8→7.5→8.5→17.5→8last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

STL OFFENSE

.268L15 team wOBA
-48 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

NYY OFFENSE

.278L15 team wOBA
-38 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
— ENVIRONMENT78° · 3mph out to LF
YANKEE STADIUM
112HR
HR factor1.12 · +
Runs factor1.04 · neutral
Doubles factor0.92 · −

Short porch — LH HR heaven.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
78°F
Wind3 mph out to LF
Humidity66%
Rain0%

Dead-still air · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO