SAN FRANCISCOSF
48-65 · +4 NL WEST · W1 · 5-5 L10
@TUE 8:05 PM ETTEX HOME PARK
55-58 · +2 AL WEST · L6 · 3-7 L10
TEXASTEX
Weather
99°F · 10mph out to CF
Home plate ump
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 1-0 so far in 2026
PITCHING MATCHUP
Blade Tidwell
RHP · SFPROBABLE
STUFF+113
ERA
3.00
IP
12.0
K/9
7.5
BB/9
2.3
WHIP
1.08
L5 STARTS5.14 ERA · 19.4% K · 6.5% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
42%
41%
4-Seam FastballSweeper
MacKenzie Gore
LHP · TEXPROBABLE
STUFF+98
ERA
4.77
IP
122.2
K/9
10.0
BB/9
3.2
WHIP
1.26
L5 STARTS6.53 ERA · 27.8% K · 4.3% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
45%
21%
10%
10%
9%
4-Seam FastballCurveballChangeupSliderCutterSinker
MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETRangers 52%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

SF TEX

Game Markets

SF @ TEX · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

SF to win

48%

1st 5 Innings

TEX F5

44%

Game Total

Over 8.5

46%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

47%

Run Line

TEX -1.5

35%

Team Total

SF Over 4.5

41%

Team Total

TEX Over 4.5

41%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 8.45 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: SF 4.23, TEX 4.21
  • Blade Tidwell (SF) vs MacKenzie Gore (TEX)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
BT

Blade Tidwell

SF SP · vs. TEX

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

21%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

9%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

9%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

1%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

31%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

20%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.2 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.2 strikeouts
  • 21% to reach 5+ against TEX
MG

MacKenzie Gore

TEX SP · vs. SF

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

69%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

51%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

33%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

20%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

11%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

70%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

31%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

50%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

36%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.7 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.7 strikeouts
  • 69% to reach 5+ against SF

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

SPLITS THAT MATTER

BLADE TIDWELL SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TEX hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%26.1%OPS-against.444
vs Left-handedK%16.7%OPS-against.804
TEX vs LHP (team)OPS.734K%25.1%

MACKENZIE GORE SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how SF hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%27.8%OPS-against.680
vs Left-handedK%20.6%OPS-against.795
SF vs RHP (team)OPS.736K%20.2%
LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

CAREER MATCHUPS

TEX BATTERS vs BLADE TIDWELL

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SF BATTERS vs MACKENZIE GORE

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
SF 1·TEX 0
3-game set · gm 2 of 3
2026 SEASON
SF 2·TEX 1
3 played · 16 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
56%SF
SF 35 · TEX 28 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-04SF 5-1
2026-03-21TEX 6-5 · One-run game
2026-03-07SF 7-5
MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
SF38¢ · 38%
TEX66¢ · 66%
Total 7.5
Over55¢ · 55%
Under50¢ · 50%
Run line ±1.5
SF -1.5 ·
TEX +1.5 ·
First 5 innings
O 4.5 ·
U 4.5 ·
TOTAL MOVEMENT84.57.55.57.5last 12h
LINEUP FORM · L15

SF OFFENSE

.295L15 team wOBA
-21 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

TEX OFFENSE

.310L15 team wOBA
-6 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG
ENVIRONMENT99° · 10mph out to CF
GLOBE LIFE FIELD
100HR
HR factor1.00 · neutral
Runs factor0.96 · neutral
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

Neutral with roof.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
99°F
Wind10 mph out to CF
Humidity25%
Rain0%

Light wind out to CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO