BETFLYAISIGN IN
PITTSBURGHPIT
57-57 · +3 NL CENTRAL · W1 · 4-6 L10
@TUE 7:40 PM ETMIL HOME PARK
69-43 · +1 NL CENTRAL · L2 · 5-5 L10
MILWAUKEEMIL
Weather
86°F · 8mph out to CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
4-game set · 1-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Jared Jones
RHP · PITPROBABLE
STUFF+101
ERA
3.81
IP
52.0
K/9
10.0
BB/9
2.6
WHIP
1.02
L5 STARTS2.00 ERA · 33.7% K · 6.1% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
38%
33%
18%
4-Seam FastballSliderChangeup
Logan Henderson
RHP · MILPROBABLE
STUFF+107
ERA
2.66
IP
44.0
K/9
11.1
BB/9
1.8
WHIP
0.91
L5 STARTS2.13 ERA · 31.6% K · 6.1% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
45%
31%
20%
4-Seam FastballChangeupCutter
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS1 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Logan Henderson · Under 6.5 <7 Pitcher Ks

contact lineup limits the K ceiling

-142 FanDuel59% book64% +5pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETBrewers 61%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

PIT MIL

Game Markets

PIT @ MIL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

MIL to win

61%

1st 5 Innings

MIL F5

47%

Game Total

Over 8.5

36%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

36%

Run Line

MIL -1.5

40%

Team Total

PIT Over 4.5

28%

Team Total

MIL Over 4.5

39%

THE READ

MIL projects to outscore PIT by 0.76 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: PIT 3.34, MIL 4.09
  • Jared Jones (PIT) vs Logan Henderson (MIL)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
JJ

Jared Jones

PIT SP · vs. MIL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

74%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

56%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

38%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

22%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

11%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

49%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

12%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

42%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

29%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.9 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.9 strikeouts
  • 74% to reach 5+ against MIL
LH

Logan Henderson

MIL SP · vs. PIT

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

75%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

56%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

36%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

21%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

10%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

68%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

7%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

37%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

23%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.9 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.9 strikeouts
  • 75% to reach 5+ against PIT

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

JARED JONES SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIL hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%24.4%OPS-against.445
vs Left-handedK%30.2%OPS-against.753
MIL vs RHP (team)OPS.753K%21.2%

LOGAN HENDERSON SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how PIT hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%34.0%OPS-against.656
vs Left-handedK%31.0%OPS-against.557
PIT vs RHP (team)OPS.774K%23.6%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

MIL BATTERS vs JARED JONES

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

PIT BATTERS vs LOGAN HENDERSON

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
PIT 1·MIL 0
4-game set · gm 2 of 4
2026 SEASON
PIT 7·MIL 1
8 played · 11 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
58%MIL
PIT 118 · MIL 161 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-03PIT 4-3 · One-run game
2026-07-12PIT 14-5 · Blowout
2026-07-11PIT 3-2 · One-run game
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
PIT42¢ · 42%
MIL62¢ · 62%
Total 7.5
Over53¢ · 53%
Under51¢ · 51%
Run line ±1.5
PIT -1.5— · —
MIL +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT8.5→7.5→8.5→7.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

PIT OFFENSE

.275L15 team wOBA
-41 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

MIL OFFENSE

.314L15 team wOBA
-2 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD
— ENVIRONMENT86° · 8mph out to CF
AMERICAN FAMILY FIELD
108HR
HR factor1.08 · +
Runs factor1.00 · neutral
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

HR-friendly with roof closed.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
86°F
Wind8 mph out to CF
Humidity47%
Rain2%

Light wind out to CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

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