MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Sean Manaea · Over 4.5 5+ Ks
punch-out artist with the right matchup
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
NYM @ CLE · full-game reads
Moneyline
CLE to win
61%
1st 5 Innings
CLE F5
51%
Game Total
Over 8.5
47%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
51%
Run Line
CLE -1.5
43%
Team Total
NYM Over 4.5
35%
Team Total
CLE Over 4.5
48%
THE READ
CLE projects to outscore NYM by 0.96 runs across 5,000 trials.
NYM SP · vs. CLE
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
52%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
33%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
18%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
8%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
4%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
94%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
65%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
74%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
61%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.7 Ks.
CLE SP · vs. NYM
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
73%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
54%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
35%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
20%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
9%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
50%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
4%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
36%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
23%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.8 Ks.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CLE hits LHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how NYM hits LHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Pitcher-friendly.
Light wind in from CF · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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