BETFLYAISIGN IN
MINNESOTAMIN
56-57 · +3 AL CENTRAL · L2 · 6-4 L10
@TUE 7:40 PM ETKC HOME PARK
46-67 · +5 AL CENTRAL · L4 · 3-7 L10
KANSAS CITYKC
Weather
95°F · 2mph out to CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Joe Ryan
RHP · MINPROBABLE
STUFF+108
ERA
3.52
IP
120.1
K/9
10.1
BB/9
1.9
WHIP
1.11
L5 STARTS4.67 ERA · 22.7% K · 5% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
45%
14%
11%
11%
11%
4-Seam FastballSweeperCurveballSplit-FingerSinkerSlider
Randy Dobnak
RHP · KCPROBABLE
STUFF+—
ERA
1.04
IP
26.0
K/9
4.8
BB/9
3.5
WHIP
1.19
L5 STARTS1.07 ERA · 13.2% K · 9.4% BB
PITCH MIX

Not cataloged

— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETTwins 57%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

MIN KC

Game Markets

MIN @ KC · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

MIN to win

57%

1st 5 Innings

KC F5

35%

Game Total

Over 8.5

46%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

49%

Run Line

KC -1.5

27%

Team Total

MIN Over 4.5

47%

Team Total

KC Over 4.5

35%

THE READ

MIN projects to outscore KC by 0.89 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: MIN 4.70, KC 3.81
  • Joe Ryan (MIN) vs Randy Dobnak (KC)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
JR

Joe Ryan

MIN SP · vs. KC

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

66%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

48%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

30%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

18%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

10%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

62%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

30%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

49%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

35%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.5 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.5 strikeouts
  • 66% to reach 5+ against KC
RD

Randy Dobnak

KC SP · vs. MIN

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

22%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

9%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

89%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

63%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

72%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

60%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.2 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.2 strikeouts
  • 22% to reach 5+ against MIN

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

JOE RYAN SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how KC hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%28.2%OPS-against.653
vs Left-handedK%26.3%OPS-against.707
KC vs RHP (team)OPS.716K%21.4%

RANDY DOBNAK SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIN hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%16.2%OPS-against.830
vs Left-handedK%11.6%OPS-against.508
MIN vs RHP (team)OPS.747K%21.3%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

KC BATTERS vs JOE RYAN

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

MIN BATTERS vs RANDY DOBNAK

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
MIN 0·KC 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
MIN 4·KC 6
10 played · 9 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
51%MIN
MIN 146 · KC 143 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-07-30MIN 4-3 · One-run game
2026-07-29KC 4-0
2026-07-28MIN 3-2 · One-run game
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
MIN60¢ · 60%
KC44¢ · 44%
Total 9
Over53¢ · 53%
Under51¢ · 51%
Run line ±1.5
MIN -1.5— · —
KC +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT9→9.5→9last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

MIN OFFENSE

.286L15 team wOBA
-31 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

KC OFFENSE

.297L15 team wOBA
-19 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG
— ENVIRONMENT95° · 2mph out to CF
KAUFFMAN STADIUM
94HR
HR factor0.94 · below avg
Runs factor0.96 · neutral
Doubles factor1.08 · +

Big OF — triples up, HR down.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
95°F
Wind2 mph out to CF
Humidity34%
Rain3%

Dead-still air · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO