MIAMIMIA
58-55 · +3 NL EAST · W3 · 6-4 L10
@TUE 7:15 PM ETATL HOME PARK
67-45 · +1 NL EAST · W5 · 7-3 L10
ATLANTAATL
Weather
80°F · 2mph out to LF
Home plate ump
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
PITCHING MATCHUP
Ryan Gusto
RHP · MIAPROBABLE
STUFF+94
ERA
5.31
IP
39.0
K/9
7.8
BB/9
3.0
WHIP
1.44
L5 STARTS5.07 ERA · 20% K · 5% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
26%
19%
14%
13%
12%
9%
4-Seam FastballChangeupSinkerCutterSweeperSlider
Grant Holmes
RHP · ATLPROBABLE
STUFF+89
ERA
3.88
IP
102.0
K/9
7.7
BB/9
4.0
WHIP
1.36
L5 STARTS3.72 ERA · 16.5% K · 7.3% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
38%
32%
10%
8%
Slider4-Seam FastballSinkerCurveballCutterChangeup
MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETBraves 56%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

MIA ATL

Game Markets

MIA @ ATL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

ATL to win

56%

1st 5 Innings

ATL F5

45%

Game Total

Over 8.5

57%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

61%

Run Line

ATL -1.5

39%

Team Total

MIA Over 4.5

46%

Team Total

ATL Over 4.5

51%

THE READ

ATL projects to outscore MIA by 0.34 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: MIA 4.67, ATL 5.01
  • Ryan Gusto (MIA) vs Grant Holmes (ATL)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
RG

Ryan Gusto

MIA SP · vs. ATL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

20%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

28%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

3%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

53%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

40%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.1 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.1 strikeouts
  • 20% to reach 5+ against ATL
GH

Grant Holmes

ATL SP · vs. MIA

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

42%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

23%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

59%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

3%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

54%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

39%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.2 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.2 strikeouts
  • 42% to reach 5+ against MIA

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

SPLITS THAT MATTER

RYAN GUSTO SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ATL hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%25.4%OPS-against.611
vs Left-handedK%15.4%OPS-against.842
ATL vs RHP (team)OPS.749K%21.3%

GRANT HOLMES SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIA hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%19.9%OPS-against.713
vs Left-handedK%19.5%OPS-against.765
MIA vs RHP (team)OPS.742K%21.0%
LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

CAREER MATCHUPS

ATL BATTERS vs RYAN GUSTO

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

MIA BATTERS vs GRANT HOLMES

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
MIA 0·ATL 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
MIA 2·ATL 5
7 played · 12 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
68%ATL
MIA 95 · ATL 204 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-05-21ATL 9-3 · Blowout
2026-05-20ATL 9-1 · Blowout
2026-05-19ATL 8-4
MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
MIA44¢ · 44%
ATL60¢ · 60%
Total 9
Over55¢ · 55%
Under50¢ · 50%
Run line ±1.5
MIA -1.5 ·
ATL +1.5 ·
First 5 innings
O 4.5 ·
U 4.5 ·
TOTAL MOVEMENT99.59last 12h
LINEUP FORM · L15

MIA OFFENSE

.300L15 team wOBA
-16 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG

ATL OFFENSE

.322L15 team wOBA
+6 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG
ENVIRONMENT80° · 2mph out to LF
TRUIST PARK
108HR
HR factor1.08 · +
Runs factor1.03 · neutral
Doubles factor1.00 · neutral

HR-friendly, especially to LF.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
80°F
Wind2 mph out to LF
Humidity74%
Rain20%

Dead-still air · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO