BETFLYAISIGN IN

AI MODEL READ

CONFIRMED LINEUPS

LAA vs BAL

Los Angeles Angels at Baltimore Orioles

Tuesday, August 4, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the LAA @ BAL simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

LOS ANGELESLAA
0·0
BALTIMOREBAL
TOP 11-01 OUT

FIELD

LAA DUGOUTBAL DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

Zach Neto (R) vs HP

FB94.3
CV78.7
FB93.8
FB94.5
FB95.8

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

Zach Neto in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · ZACH NETO

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

BAL to win

68%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

BAL -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL BAL

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

BAL wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYZach Neto at the plate · pitch 1 of 5

event 1 / 84 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEEVEN
LINEUP EDGEBAL

LAA STARTER

Grayson Rodriguez

SHAKY
4.3
PROJECTED Ks
—
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 54% · 15% whiffChangeup · 23% · 36% whiffCurveball · 13% · 15% whiff

Watch out: 4-Seam Fastball is getting hit hard lately.

BAL STARTER

Cade Povich

SHAKY
4.6
PROJECTED Ks
—
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 43% · 21% whiffCurveball · 23% · 38% whiffSlider · 16% · 40% whiff

Cade Povich projects 4.6 Ks vs Grayson Rodriguez projects 4.3 Ks

LAA LINEUP

  1. 1Zach Neto (R)hit 59% · HR 22%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    22%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    28%

    3+ BASES

    23%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    45%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Mike Trout (R)hit 63% · HR 25%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    25%

    HOME RUN

    44%

    2+ BASES

    31%

    3+ BASES

    26%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    44%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Nolan Schanuel (L)hit 63% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Vaughn Grissom (R)hit 59% · HR 12%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Denzer Guzman (R)hit 54% · HR 10%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Moisés Ballesteroshit 53% · HR 12%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Travis d'Arnaud (R)hit 48% · HR 13%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    48%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Jose Siri (R)hit 49% · HR 15%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    49%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Wade Meckler (L)hit 54% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    19%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

BAL LINEUP

  1. 1Dylan Beavers (L)hit 68% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    52%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Pete Alonso (R)hit 75% · HR 34%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    75%

    1+ HIT

    38%

    2+ HITS

    34%

    HOME RUN

    57%

    2+ BASES

    43%

    3+ BASES

    37%

    4+ BASES

    49%

    RBI

    26%

    2+ RBIs

    58%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Gunnar Henderson (L)hit 63% · HR 16%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    43%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Christian Encarnacion-Strand (R)hit 67% · HR 22%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    22%

    HOME RUN

    44%

    2+ BASES

    31%

    3+ BASES

    24%

    4+ BASES

    40%

    RBI

    18%

    2+ RBIs

    46%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Jackson Holliday (L)hit 63% · HR 15%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    44%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Coby Mayo (R)hit 58% · HR 19%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    35%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    40%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Christian Franklinhit 63% · HR 16%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    40%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Colton Cowser (L)hit 57% · HR 17%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Carlos Narváez (R)hit 52% · HR 10%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

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Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

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II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

Swipe the whole board.

One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

LAA BAL

Game Markets

LAA @ BAL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

BAL to win

68%

1st 5 Innings

BAL F5

59%

Game Total

Over 8.5

54%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

61%

Run Line

BAL -1.5

51%

Team Total

LAA Over 4.5

35%

Team Total

BAL Over 4.5

57%

THE READ

BAL projects to outscore LAA by 1.72 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: LAA 3.82, BAL 5.55
  • Grayson Rodriguez (LAA) vs Cade Povich (BAL)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
GR

Grayson Rodriguez

LAA SP · vs. BAL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

43%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

24%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

12%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

66%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

11%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

64%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

50%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.3 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.3 strikeouts
  • 43% to reach 5+ against BAL
CP

Cade Povich

BAL SP · vs. LAA

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

48%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

32%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

20%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

5%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

42%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

19%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

38%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

25%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.6 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.6 strikeouts
  • 48% to reach 5+ against LAA
PA

Pete Alonso

BAL · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

34%

Hits

1+ hits

78%

Hits

2+ hits

40%

Total Bases

2+ bases

61%

Total Bases

3+ bases

46%

Total Bases

4+ bases

39%

RBIs

1+ RBI

50%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

27%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 34% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Grayson Rodriguez
MT

Mike Trout

LAA · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

25%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

28%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 25% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Facing Cade Povich
CE

Christian Encarnacion-Strand

BAL · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

41%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 19% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Grayson Rodriguez
ZN

Zach Neto

LAA · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Cade Povich
DB

Dylan Beavers

BAL · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 31% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Grayson Rodriguez
CM

Coby Mayo

BAL · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 16% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Facing Grayson Rodriguez
GH

Gunnar Henderson

BAL · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 15% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Grayson Rodriguez
CF

Christian Franklin

BAL · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 26% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7
  • Facing Grayson Rodriguez
JH

Jackson Holliday

BAL · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 14% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Facing Grayson Rodriguez
CC

Colton Cowser

BAL · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Grayson Rodriguez
NS

Nolan Schanuel

LAA · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Facing Cade Povich
VG

Vaughn Grissom

LAA · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Facing Cade Povich
JS

Jose Siri

LAA · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

52%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 52%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Cade Povich
WM

Wade Meckler

LAA · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

20%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 62%.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Facing Cade Povich
DG

Denzer Guzman

LAA · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 62%.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Cade Povich
MB

Moisés Ballesteros

LAA · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 62%.

  • Batting 6
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Cade Povich
CN

Carlos Narváez

BAL · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 62%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Grayson Rodriguez
TD

Travis d'Arnaud

LAA · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

50%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 13% against 16%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Cade Povich

III · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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