AI MODEL READ
LEAGUE AVGDET vs SEA
Detroit Tigers at Seattle Mariners
Tuesday, August 4, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the DET @ SEA simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
League Avg (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
League Avg in this spot
BATTER PROPS · LEAGUE AVG
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
SEA to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
SEA -1.5
TEAM TOTAL SEA
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
SEA wins F5
event 1 / 75 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
Detroit vs Seattle Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN
Who has the advantage tonight.
The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.
DET STARTER
Troy Melton
GOOD- 5.2
- PROJECTED Ks
- —
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
SEA STARTER
Emerson Hancock
GOOD- 5.1
- PROJECTED Ks
- —
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
Watch out: Sinker is getting hit hard lately.
Emerson Hancock projects 5.1 Ks vs Troy Melton projects 5.2 Ks
III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
Game Markets
DET @ SEA · full-game reads
Moneyline
DET to win
49%
1st 5 Innings
SEA F5
40%
Game Total
Over 8.5
34%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
38%
Run Line
SEA -1.5
32%
Team Total
DET Over 4.5
33%
Team Total
SEA Over 4.5
31%
THE READ
The sim splits this one — 7.26 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.
- Projected runs: DET 3.68, SEA 3.58
- Troy Melton (DET) vs Emerson Hancock (SEA)
- Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
Troy Melton
DET SP · vs. SEA
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
61%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
41%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
25%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
12%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
6%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
91%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
47%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
55%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
40%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.2 Ks.
- Sim projects 5.2 strikeouts
- 61% to reach 5+ against SEA
Emerson Hancock
SEA SP · vs. DET
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
60%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
40%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
24%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
12%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
5%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
93%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
53%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
56%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
41%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.1 Ks.
- Sim projects 5.1 strikeouts
- 60% to reach 5+ against DET
BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
IV · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.