BETFLYAISIGN IN
WASHINGTONWSH
55-58 · +4 NL EAST · L5 · 3-7 L10
@MON 6:40 PM ETPHI HOME PARK
59-53 · +2 NL EAST · W2 · 3-7 L10
PHILADELPHIAPHI
Weather
81°F · 7mph out to RF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
4-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Andrew Alvarez
LHP · WSHPROBABLE
STUFF+96
ERA
4.06
IP
57.2
K/9
9.1
BB/9
4.4
WHIP
1.51
L5 STARTS5.51 ERA · 16.8% K · 13.7% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
30%
29%
25%
14%
4-Seam FastballCurveballSliderSinker
Aaron Nola
RHP · PHIPROBABLE
STUFF+106
ERA
5.61
IP
114.0
K/9
9.2
BB/9
3.1
WHIP
1.45
L5 STARTS4.45 ERA · 24% K · 8.3% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
34%
24%
21%
13%
Curveball4-Seam FastballSinkerChangeupCutter
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETPhillies 59%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

WSH PHI

Game Markets

WSH @ PHI · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

PHI to win

59%

1st 5 Innings

PHI F5

48%

Game Total

Over 8.5

52%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

54%

Run Line

PHI -1.5

40%

Team Total

WSH Over 4.5

41%

Team Total

PHI Over 4.5

50%

THE READ

PHI projects to outscore WSH by 0.65 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: WSH 4.23, PHI 4.88
  • Andrew Alvarez (WSH) vs Aaron Nola (PHI)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
AA

Andrew Alvarez

WSH SP · vs. PHI

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

43%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

24%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

27%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

1%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

48%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

33%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.3 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.3 strikeouts
  • 43% to reach 5+ against PHI
AN

Aaron Nola

PHI SP · vs. WSH

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

65%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

46%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

28%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

7%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

80%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

27%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

54%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

40%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.4 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.4 strikeouts
  • 65% to reach 5+ against WSH

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

ANDREW ALVAREZ SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how PHI hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%25.1%OPS-against.711
vs Left-handedK%17.4%OPS-against.797
PHI vs RHP (team)OPS.710K%23.5%

AARON NOLA SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how WSH hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%26.3%OPS-against.789
vs Left-handedK%21.4%OPS-against.890
WSH vs LHP (team)OPS.786K%23.5%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

PHI BATTERS vs ANDREW ALVAREZ

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

WSH BATTERS vs AARON NOLA

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
WSH 0·PHI 0
4-game set · gm 1 of 4
2026 SEASON
WSH 3·PHI 6
9 played · 10 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
52%PHI
WSH 143 · PHI 153 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-06-25PHI 10-5 · Slugfest
2026-06-24PHI 5-4 · One-run game
2026-06-23PHI 14-9 · Slugfest
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
WSH43¢ · 43%
PHI61¢ · 61%
Total 9.5
Over55¢ · 55%
Under50¢ · 50%
Run line ±1.5
WSH -1.5— · —
PHI +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT9→9.5→9→9.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

WSH OFFENSE

.338L15 team wOBA
+22 pts vs LG AVG · TOP 6

PHI OFFENSE

.312L15 team wOBA
-4 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD
— ENVIRONMENT81° · 7mph out to RF
CITIZENS BANK PARK
110HR
HR factor1.10 · +
Runs factor1.02 · neutral
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

HR-friendly.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
81°F
Wind7 mph out to RF
Humidity67%
Rain6%

Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO