MODEL VS THE BOOKS · GAME MARKETS
TB2 · spread
Seymour has the rotation edge
MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Michael Lorenzen · Over 3.5 4+ Ks
high-K profile + cooperative opp
Ian Seymour · Over 4.5 5+ Ks
strikeout machine on the bump
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
TB @ COL · full-game reads
Moneyline
TB to win
66%
1st 5 Innings
COL F5
30%
Game Total
Over 8.5
75%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
71%
Run Line
COL -1.5
23%
Team Total
TB Over 4.5
73%
Team Total
COL Over 4.5
50%
THE READ
TB projects to outscore COL by 2.34 runs across 5,000 trials.
TB SP · vs. COL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
72%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
56%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
38%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
25%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
14%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
60%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
27%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
54%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
41%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 6.0 Ks.
COL SP · vs. TB
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
11%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
4%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
0%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
32%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
5%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
68%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
56%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 2.5 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how COL hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TB hits LHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Altitude — extreme run environment.
Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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