MODEL VS THE BOOKS · GAME MARKETS
NYY3 · spread
Schlittler's ace-tier arsenal vs softer counterpart
NYY2 · spread
Schlittler's ace-tier arsenal vs softer counterpart
MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Michael McGreevy · Under 17.5 <18 Outs
high-pitch-count grinder in a tough matchup
Cam Schlittler · Over 6.5 7+ Ks
K-monster arsenal
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
STL @ NYY · full-game reads
Moneyline
NYY to win
71%
1st 5 Innings
NYY F5
64%
Game Total
Over 8.5
56%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
59%
Run Line
NYY -1.5
55%
Team Total
STL Over 4.5
34%
Team Total
NYY Over 4.5
62%
THE READ
NYY projects to outscore STL by 2.24 runs across 5,000 trials.
STL SP · vs. NYY
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
20%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
8%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
3%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
99%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
74%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
86%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
77%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.1 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
NYY SP · vs. STL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
88%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
78%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
63%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
48%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
33%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
85%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
58%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
57%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
42%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.5 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how NYY hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how STL hits RHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Short porch — LH HR heaven.
Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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