AI MODEL READ

PARTIAL LINEUPS

SF vs TEX

San Francisco Giants at Texas Rangers

Monday, August 3, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the SF @ TEX simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

SAN FRANCISCOSF

0·0

TEXASTEX

TOP 11-01 OUT

FIELD

PITCH SEQUENCE

League Avg (R) vs HP

SL84.1

FB92.1

FB95.2

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

League Avg in this spot

HIT

24%

OUT

55%

BATTER PROPS · LEAGUE AVG

HR YES (O0.5)

12%

HITS O0.5

40%

TOTAL BASES O1.5

24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5

55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

TEX to win

48%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

TEX -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL TEX

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

TEX wins F5

51%

LAST PLAYLeague Avg at the plate · pitch 1 of 3

event 1 / 78 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME TOTAL

SF Over 4.5 runs

47%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

straight from our 5,000-trial sim · lineup is 19-for-67 (.284) with 1 HR vs. this starter, career · hitter-friendly park · opposing pitcher has struggled this year (xFIP 4.66)

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGESF

SF STARTER

Logan Webb

GOOD

3.9
PROJECTED Ks: —
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Sinker · 31% · 11% whiffChangeup · 25% · 29% whiffSweeper · 19% · 23% whiff

TEX STARTER

Cal Quantrill

AVERAGE

3.3
PROJECTED Ks: —
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Cutter · 28% · 16% whiffSinker · 27% · 16% whiffSplit-Finger · 21% · 20% whiff

Cal Quantrill projects 3.3 Ks vs Logan Webb projects 3.9 Ks

SF LINEUP

Lineup not posted yet — check back closer to first pitch.

TEX LINEUP

1Joc Pederson (L)hit 72% · HR 29%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
72%
1+ HIT
35%
2+ HITS
29%
HOME RUN
52%
2+ BASES
39%
3+ BASES
32%
4+ BASES
39%
RBI
19%
2+ RBIs
53%
SCORES A RUN
2Wyatt Langford (R)hit 71% · HR 20%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
71%
1+ HIT
33%
2+ HITS
20%
HOME RUN
49%
2+ BASES
32%
3+ BASES
24%
4+ BASES
34%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
47%
SCORES A RUN
3Corey Seager (L)hit 66% · HR 16%COLD·UNLUCKY›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
66%
1+ HIT
27%
2+ HITS
16%
HOME RUN
42%
2+ BASES
26%
3+ BASES
19%
4+ BASES
33%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
39%
SCORES A RUN
4Brandon Nimmo (L)hit 69% · HR 11%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
69%
1+ HIT
28%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
42%
2+ BASES
24%
3+ BASES
16%
4+ BASES
32%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
38%
SCORES A RUN
5Evan Carter (L)hit 57% · HR 10%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
57%
1+ HIT
18%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
30%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
27%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
36%
SCORES A RUN
6Jake Burger (R)hit 63% · HR 14%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
63%
1+ HIT
23%
2+ HITS
14%
HOME RUN
38%
2+ BASES
23%
3+ BASES
17%
4+ BASES
33%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
34%
SCORES A RUN
7Ezequiel Duran (R)hit 62% · HR 12%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
62%
1+ HIT
24%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
37%
2+ BASES
22%
3+ BASES
15%
4+ BASES
30%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
34%
SCORES A RUN
8Austin Wynns (R)hit 53% · HR 7%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
53%
1+ HIT
15%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
26%
2+ BASES
13%
3+ BASES
8%
4+ BASES
22%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
29%
SCORES A RUN
9Nicky Lopez (L)hit 57% · HR 6%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
57%
1+ HIT
18%
2+ HITS
6%
HOME RUN
26%
2+ BASES
12%
3+ BASES
7%
4+ BASES
20%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
31%
SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

Every bat, graded by the sim.

Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

Swipe the whole board.

One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

97 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 12

SF TEX

Game Markets

SF @ TEX · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

SF to win

52%

1st 5 Innings

TEX F5

39%

Game Total

Over 8.5

57%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

59%

Run Line

TEX -1.5

33%

Team Total

SF Over 4.5

51%

Team Total

TEX Over 4.5

46%

THE READ

SF projects to outscore TEX by 0.57 runs across 5,000 trials.

Projected runs: SF 5.13, TEX 4.56
Logan Webb (SF) vs Cal Quantrill (TEX)
Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post

Logan Webb

SF SP · vs. TEX

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

35%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

19%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

84%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

62%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

73%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

61%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.9 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

Sim projects 3.9 strikeouts
35% to reach 5+ against TEX

Cal Quantrill

TEX SP · vs. SF

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

23%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

79%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

45%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

70%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

57%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.3 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

Sim projects 3.3 strikeouts
23% to reach 5+ against SF

Joc Pederson

TEX · bats L · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

29%

Hits

1+ hits

76%

Hits

2+ hits

37%

Total Bases

2+ bases

55%

Total Bases

3+ bases

41%

Total Bases

4+ bases

34%

RBIs

1+ RBI

41%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 29% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 1 · bats L
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Logan Webb

Wyatt Langford

TEX · bats R · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

74%

Hits

2+ hits

35%

Total Bases

2+ bases

52%

Total Bases

3+ bases

34%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 26% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 2 · bats R
Facing Logan Webb

Corey Seager

TEX · bats L · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 3 · bats L
Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
Facing Logan Webb

Brandon Nimmo

TEX · bats L · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 29% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 4 · bats L
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Logan Webb

Jake Burger

TEX · bats R · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 14% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 6 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Logan Webb

Ezequiel Duran

TEX · bats R · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.

Batting 7 · bats R
Facing Logan Webb

Evan Carter

TEX · bats L · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ RBI at 28% against 31%.

Batting 5 · bats L
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Logan Webb

Nicky Lopez

TEX · bats L · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 66%.

Batting 9 · bats L
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Logan Webb

Austin Wynns

TEX · bats R · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 66%.

Batting 8 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Logan Webb

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.