Not yet announced by the team.
Not yet announced by the team.
MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Brandon Pfaadt · Over 3.5 4+ Ks
elite swing-and-miss stuff
Michael King · Under 17.5 <18 Outs
walk-prone, opp lineup turns pitch counts ugly
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
SD @ ARI · full-game reads
Moneyline
SD to win
49%
1st 5 Innings
ARI F5
43%
Game Total
Over 8.5
54%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
56%
Run Line
ARI -1.5
35%
Team Total
SD Over 4.5
47%
Team Total
ARI Over 4.5
46%
THE READ
The sim splits this one — 9.33 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.
SD SP · vs. ARI
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
45%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
26%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
12%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
5%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
2%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
70%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
9%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
56%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
41%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.3 Ks.
ARI SP · vs. SD
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
33%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
18%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
8%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
3%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
99%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
85%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
78%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
66%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.8 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ARI hits LHP
Pitcher splits unavailable.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how SD hits RHP
Pitcher splits unavailable.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Slight offensive tilt.
Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Mean score sim 4.7–4.6 · projected total 9.3 runs · pre-lineup estimate — refreshes when lineups post
That's the simulation. The called reads — which markets the engine actually likes at today's prices, with the reasoning — publish to Edge and Sharp members.
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