BETFLYAISIGN IN
PITTSBURGHPIT
56-57 · +3 NL CENTRAL · L1 · 3-7 L10
@MON 7:40 PM ETMIL HOME PARK
69-42 · +1 NL CENTRAL · L1 · 6-4 L10
MILWAUKEEMIL
Weather
76°F · 8mph out to LF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
4-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Bubba Chandler
RHP · PITPROBABLE
STUFF+104
ERA
4.56
IP
104.2
K/9
8.0
BB/9
4.9
WHIP
1.41
L5 STARTS5.16 ERA · 17.7% K · 9.7% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
48%
18%
17%
4-Seam FastballSliderChangeupSinkerSweeperCurveball
Brandon Sproat
RHP · MILPROBABLE
STUFF+100
ERA
5.05
IP
92.2
K/9
9.3
BB/9
4.5
WHIP
1.39
L5 STARTS4.04 ERA · 22.3% K · 13.6% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
25%
24%
23%
11%
10%
SinkerCutter4-Seam FastballCurveballSweeperChangeup
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS1 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Brandon Sproat · Under 5.5 <6 Pitcher Ks

modest K rate + contact-shy opp

-125 DraftKings56% book61% +6pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETBrewers 58%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

PIT MIL

Game Markets

PIT @ MIL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

MIL to win

58%

1st 5 Innings

MIL F5

46%

Game Total

Over 8.5

54%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

57%

Run Line

MIL -1.5

41%

Team Total

PIT Over 4.5

43%

Team Total

MIL Over 4.5

51%

THE READ

MIL projects to outscore PIT by 0.51 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: PIT 4.44, MIL 4.96
  • Bubba Chandler (PIT) vs Brandon Sproat (MIL)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
BC

Bubba Chandler

PIT SP · vs. MIL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

43%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

25%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

13%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

61%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

25%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

58%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

44%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.2 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.2 strikeouts
  • 43% to reach 5+ against MIL
BS

Brandon Sproat

MIL SP · vs. PIT

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

57%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

39%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

23%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

13%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

6%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

59%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

24%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

48%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

35%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.0 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.0 strikeouts
  • 57% to reach 5+ against PIT

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

BUBBA CHANDLER SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIL hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%20.9%OPS-against.610
vs Left-handedK%19.4%OPS-against.781
MIL vs RHP (team)OPS.755K%21.1%

BRANDON SPROAT SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how PIT hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%23.5%OPS-against.809
vs Left-handedK%24.6%OPS-against.769
PIT vs RHP (team)OPS.775K%23.5%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

MIL BATTERS vs BUBBA CHANDLER

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

PIT BATTERS vs BRANDON SPROAT

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
PIT 0·MIL 0
4-game set · gm 1 of 4
2026 SEASON
PIT 6·MIL 1
7 played · 12 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
58%MIL
PIT 117 · MIL 161 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-07-12PIT 14-5 · Blowout
2026-07-11PIT 3-2 · One-run game
2026-07-11PIT 7-6 · One-run game
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
PIT44¢ · 44%
MIL59¢ · 59%
Total 8.5
Over51¢ · 51%
Under53¢ · 53%
Run line ±1.5
PIT -1.5— · —
MIL +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
— LINEUP FORM · L15

PIT OFFENSE

.276L15 team wOBA
-40 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

MIL OFFENSE

.316L15 team wOBA
0 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD
— ENVIRONMENT76° · 8mph out to LF
AMERICAN FAMILY FIELD
108HR
HR factor1.08 · +
Runs factor1.00 · neutral
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

HR-friendly with roof closed.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
76°F
Wind8 mph out to LF
Humidity67%
Rain0%

Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO