MINNESOTAMIN
56-57 · +3 AL CENTRAL · L2 · 6-4 L10
@2026-08-03KC HOME PARK
46-67 · +5 AL CENTRAL · L4 · 3-7 L10
KANSAS CITYKC
Weather
86°F · 8mph out to LF
Home plate ump
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
PITCHING MATCHUP
Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETTwins 57%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

MIN KC

Game Markets

MIN @ KC · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

MIN to win

57%

1st 5 Innings

KC F5

35%

Game Total

Over 8.5

47%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

49%

Run Line

KC -1.5

26%

Team Total

MIN Over 4.5

49%

Team Total

KC Over 4.5

35%

THE READ

MIN projects to outscore KC by 1.05 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: MIN 4.83, KC 3.78
  • Joe Ryan (MIN) vs Randy Dobnak (KC)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
JR

Joe Ryan

MIN SP · vs. KC

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

62%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

45%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

29%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

17%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

9%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

58%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

26%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

46%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

33%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.3 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.3 strikeouts
  • 62% to reach 5+ against KC
RD

Randy Dobnak

KC SP · vs. MIN

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

24%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

92%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

70%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

75%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

64%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.3 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.3 strikeouts
  • 24% to reach 5+ against MIN

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

SPLITS THAT MATTER

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how KC hits LHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

KC vs LHP (team)OPS.700K%21.1%

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIN hits RHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

MIN vs RHP (team)OPS.747K%21.3%
LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

CAREER MATCHUPS

KC BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

MIN BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
MIN 0·KC 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
MIN 4·KC 6
10 played · 9 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
51%MIN
MIN 146 · KC 143 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-07-30MIN 4-3 · One-run game
2026-07-29KC 4-0
2026-07-28MIN 3-2 · One-run game
MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
MIN60¢ · 60%
KC44¢ · 44%
Total 9.5
Over53¢ · 53%
Under51¢ · 51%
Run line ±1.5
MIN -1.5 ·
KC +1.5 ·
First 5 innings
O 4.5 ·
U 4.5 ·
TOTAL MOVEMENT9.599.599.5last 12h
LINEUP FORM · L15

MIN OFFENSE

.286L15 team wOBA
-31 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

KC OFFENSE

.297L15 team wOBA
-19 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG
ENVIRONMENT86° · 8mph out to LF
KAUFFMAN STADIUM
94HR
HR factor0.94 · below avg
Runs factor0.96 · neutral
Doubles factor1.08 · +

Big OF — triples up, HR down.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
86°F
Wind8 mph out to LF
Humidity51%
Rain0%

Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

TWINS 57%

Mean score sim 4.83.8 · projected total 8.6 runs · pre-lineup estimate — refreshes when lineups post

That's the simulation. The called reads — which markets the engine actually likes at today's prices, with the reasoning — publish to Edge and Sharp members.

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