AI MODEL READ

PARTIAL LINEUPS

LAD vs CHC

Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago Cubs

Monday, August 3, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the LAD @ CHC simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

LOS ANGELESLAD

0·0

CHICAGOCHC

TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

PITCH SEQUENCE

Shohei Ohtani (L) vs HP

FB94.7

CV77.4

SL86.3

FB92

SL86.7

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

Shohei Ohtani in this spot

HIT

24%

OUT

55%

BATTER PROPS · SHOHEI OHTANI

HR YES (O0.5)

12%

HITS O0.5

40%

TOTAL BASES O1.5

24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5

55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

CHC to win

48%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

CHC -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL CHC

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

CHC wins F5

51%

LAST PLAYShohei Ohtani at the plate · pitch 1 of 5

event 1 / 80 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

Los Angeles D vs Chicago C Winner?

58%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

sim-led read — sharp books close, not identical

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGECHC

LAD STARTER

Justin Wrobleski

GOOD

4.2
PROJECTED Ks: —
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 49% · 23% whiffSlider · 29% · 20% whiff

CHC STARTER

Matthew Boyd

AVERAGE

5.1
PROJECTED Ks: —
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 46% · 17% whiffChangeup · 28% · 28% whiffSlider · 16% · 47% whiff

Matthew Boyd projects 5.1 Ks vs Justin Wrobleski projects 4.2 Ks

LAD LINEUP

1Shohei Ohtani (L)hit 77% · HR 30%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
77%
1+ HIT
42%
2+ HITS
30%
HOME RUN
58%
2+ BASES
43%
3+ BASES
35%
4+ BASES
43%
RBI
20%
2+ RBIs
56%
SCORES A RUN
2Andy Pages (R)hit 68% · HR 16%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
68%
1+ HIT
31%
2+ HITS
16%
HOME RUN
43%
2+ BASES
27%
3+ BASES
19%
4+ BASES
33%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
46%
SCORES A RUN
3Tommy Edman (S)hit 69% · HR 10%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
69%
1+ HIT
31%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
41%
2+ BASES
23%
3+ BASES
15%
4+ BASES
31%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
42%
SCORES A RUN
4Freddie Freeman (L)hit 72% · HR 17%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
72%
1+ HIT
33%
2+ HITS
17%
HOME RUN
46%
2+ BASES
30%
3+ BASES
22%
4+ BASES
41%
RBI
19%
2+ RBIs
42%
SCORES A RUN
5Mookie Betts (R)hit 64% · HR 12%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
64%
1+ HIT
25%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
37%
2+ BASES
22%
3+ BASES
15%
4+ BASES
33%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
37%
SCORES A RUN
6Kyle Tucker (L)hit 64% · HR 12%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
64%
1+ HIT
25%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
38%
2+ BASES
22%
3+ BASES
15%
4+ BASES
30%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
39%
SCORES A RUN
7Teoscar Hernández (R)hit 65% · HR 16%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
65%
1+ HIT
26%
2+ HITS
16%
HOME RUN
40%
2+ BASES
25%
3+ BASES
19%
4+ BASES
34%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
38%
SCORES A RUN
8Enrique Hernández (R)hit 54% · HR 10%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
54%
1+ HIT
17%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
28%
2+ BASES
17%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
26%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
34%
SCORES A RUN
9Eliezer Alfonzo (S)hit 57% · HR 11%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
57%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
32%
2+ BASES
19%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
26%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
38%
SCORES A RUN

CHC LINEUP

Lineup not posted yet — check back closer to first pitch.

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

Every bat, graded by the sim.

Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

UPGRADE TO EDGE — $10/mo

III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

Swipe the whole board.

One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

97 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 12

LAD CHC

Game Markets

LAD @ CHC · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

LAD to win

52%

1st 5 Innings

CHC F5

43%

Game Total

Over 8.5

58%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

56%

Run Line

CHC -1.5

33%

Team Total

LAD Over 4.5

52%

Team Total

CHC Over 4.5

48%

THE READ

LAD projects to outscore CHC by 0.46 runs across 5,000 trials.

Projected runs: LAD 5.16, CHC 4.70
Justin Wrobleski (LAD) vs Matthew Boyd (CHC)
Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post

Justin Wrobleski

LAD SP · vs. CHC

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

41%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

24%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

100%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

98%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

83%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

72%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.2 Ks.

Sim projects 4.2 strikeouts
41% to reach 5+ against CHC

Matthew Boyd

CHC SP · vs. LAD

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

60%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

40%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

23%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

99%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

70%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

74%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

61%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.1 Ks.

Sim projects 5.1 strikeouts
60% to reach 5+ against LAD

Shohei Ohtani

LAD · bats L · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

30%

Hits

1+ hits

80%

Hits

2+ hits

44%

Total Bases

2+ bases

62%

Total Bases

3+ bases

45%

Total Bases

4+ bases

37%

RBIs

1+ RBI

44%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

20%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 30% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 1 · bats L
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Matthew Boyd

Freddie Freeman

LAD · bats L · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

75%

Hits

2+ hits

35%

Total Bases

2+ bases

50%

Total Bases

3+ bases

32%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

42%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 19% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 4 · bats L
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Matthew Boyd

Tommy Edman

LAD · bats S · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 32% against 29% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 3 · bats S
Facing Matthew Boyd

Andy Pages

LAD · bats R · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 32% against 29% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 2 · bats R
Facing Matthew Boyd

Teoscar Hernández

LAD · bats R · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 7 · bats R
Facing Matthew Boyd

Mookie Betts

LAD · bats R · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.

Batting 5 · bats R
Facing Matthew Boyd

Kyle Tucker

LAD · bats L · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.

Batting 6 · bats L
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Matthew Boyd

Eliezer Alfonzo

LAD · bats S · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 68%.

Batting 9 · bats S
Facing Matthew Boyd

Enrique Hernández

LAD · bats R · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 68%.

Batting 8 · bats R
Facing Matthew Boyd

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.