AI MODEL READ
PARTIAL LINEUPSWSH vs ATL
Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves
Sunday, August 2, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the WSH @ ATL simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
James Wood (L) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
James Wood in this spot
BATTER PROPS · JAMES WOOD
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
ATL to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
ATL -1.5
TEAM TOTAL ATL
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
ATL wins F5
event 1 / 83 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
Washington vs Atlanta Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
our sim and the sharpest books agree
II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN
Who has the advantage tonight.
The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.
WSH STARTER
Cade Cavalli
AVERAGE- 5.0
- PROJECTED Ks
- 98
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
ATL STARTER
JR Ritchie
AVERAGE- 3.6
- PROJECTED Ks
- 96
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
JR Ritchie grades avg (Pitching+ 96) vs Cade Cavalli grades avg (Pitching+ 98)
WSH LINEUP
1James Wood (L)hit 65% · HR 26%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
65%
1+ HIT
27%
2+ HITS
26%
HOME RUN
46%
2+ BASES
33%
3+ BASES
28%
4+ BASES
37%
RBI
16%
2+ RBIs
58%
SCORES A RUN
2Luis García Jr. (L)hit 69% · HR 25%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
69%
1+ HIT
32%
2+ HITS
25%
HOME RUN
49%
2+ BASES
35%
3+ BASES
28%
4+ BASES
40%
RBI
20%
2+ RBIs
49%
SCORES A RUN
3José Tena (L)hit 61% · HR 12%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
61%
1+ HIT
23%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
36%
2+ BASES
22%
3+ BASES
15%
4+ BASES
31%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
38%
SCORES A RUN
4CJ Abrams (L)hit 64% · HR 23%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
64%
1+ HIT
26%
2+ HITS
23%
HOME RUN
41%
2+ BASES
29%
3+ BASES
24%
4+ BASES
39%
RBI
19%
2+ RBIs
45%
SCORES A RUN
5Dylan Crews (R)hit 58% · HR 14%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
58%
1+ HIT
20%
2+ HITS
14%
HOME RUN
34%
2+ BASES
21%
3+ BASES
15%
4+ BASES
31%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
34%
SCORES A RUN
6Daylen Lile (L)hit 58% · HR 11%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
58%
1+ HIT
20%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
34%
2+ BASES
20%
3+ BASES
14%
4+ BASES
28%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
34%
SCORES A RUN
7Nasim Nuñez (S)hit 53% · HR 4%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
53%
1+ HIT
17%
2+ HITS
4%
HOME RUN
24%
2+ BASES
12%
3+ BASES
6%
4+ BASES
22%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
31%
SCORES A RUN
8Jorbit Vivas (L)hit 55% · HR 7%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
55%
1+ HIT
17%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
28%
2+ BASES
14%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
25%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
31%
SCORES A RUN
9Keibert Ruiz (S)hit 55% · HR 9%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
55%
1+ HIT
17%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
30%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
26%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
33%
SCORES A RUN
ATL LINEUP
1Drake Baldwin (L)hit 69% · HR 24%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
69%
1+ HIT
32%
2+ HITS
24%
HOME RUN
46%
2+ BASES
32%
3+ BASES
26%
4+ BASES
36%
RBI
16%
2+ RBIs
51%
SCORES A RUN
2Ronald Acuña Jr. (R)hit 68% · HR 21%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
68%
1+ HIT
29%
2+ HITS
21%
HOME RUN
46%
2+ BASES
31%
3+ BASES
24%
4+ BASES
35%
RBI
16%
2+ RBIs
50%
SCORES A RUN
3Matt Olson (L)hit 65% · HR 24%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
65%
1+ HIT
25%
2+ HITS
24%
HOME RUN
44%
2+ BASES
31%
3+ BASES
25%
4+ BASES
39%
RBI
20%
2+ RBIs
45%
SCORES A RUN
4Michael Harris II (L)hit 67% · HR 18%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
67%
1+ HIT
27%
2+ HITS
18%
HOME RUN
41%
2+ BASES
26%
3+ BASES
20%
4+ BASES
36%
RBI
16%
2+ RBIs
38%
SCORES A RUN
5Ozzie Albies (S)hit 59% · HR 11%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
59%
1+ HIT
21%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
32%
2+ BASES
18%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
27%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
33%
SCORES A RUN
6Mauricio Dubón (R)hit 62% · HR 10%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
62%
1+ HIT
23%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
34%
2+ BASES
19%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
25%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
34%
SCORES A RUN
7Mike Yastrzemski (L)hit 61% · HR 12%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
61%
1+ HIT
21%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
35%
2+ BASES
20%
3+ BASES
14%
4+ BASES
28%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
36%
SCORES A RUN
8Austin Riley (R)hit 56% · HR 12%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
56%
1+ HIT
17%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
30%
2+ BASES
18%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
25%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
35%
SCORES A RUN
9Jim Jarvis (L)hit 60% · HR 10%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
60%
1+ HIT
21%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
34%
2+ BASES
20%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
26%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
37%
SCORES A RUN
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Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.
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169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
WSH @ ATL · full-game reads
Moneyline
WSH to win
47%
1st 5 Innings
ATL F5
41%
Game Total
Over 8.5
63%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
64%
Run Line
ATL -1.5
36%
Team Total
WSH Over 4.5
53%
Team Total
ATL Over 4.5
54%
THE READ
The sim splits this one — 10.38 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.
- Projected runs: WSH 5.21, ATL 5.17
- Cade Cavalli (WSH) vs JR Ritchie (ATL)
- Run on confirmed lineups
Cade Cavalli
WSH SP · vs. ATL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
60%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
40%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
21%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
10%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
4%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
54%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
3%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
57%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
42%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.0 Ks.
- Sim projects 5.0 strikeouts
- 60% to reach 5+ against ATL
JR Ritchie
ATL SP · vs. WSH
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
28%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
13%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
5%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
35%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
5%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
48%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
35%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.5 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 3.5 strikeouts
- 28% to reach 5+ against WSH
James Wood
WSH · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
28%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
52%
Total Bases
3+ bases
38%
Total Bases
4+ bases
31%
RBIs
1+ RBI
40%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 28% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing JR Ritchie
Luis García Jr.
WSH · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
27%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
53%
Total Bases
3+ bases
39%
Total Bases
4+ bases
32%
RBIs
1+ RBI
44%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
21%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 27% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing JR Ritchie
Matt Olson
ATL · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
26%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
51%
Total Bases
3+ bases
36%
Total Bases
4+ bases
29%
RBIs
1+ RBI
43%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
22%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 26% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Cade Cavalli
CJ Abrams
WSH · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
26%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
35%
Total Bases
4+ bases
29%
RBIs
1+ RBI
45%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
21%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 26% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing JR Ritchie
Drake Baldwin
ATL · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
26%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
37%
Total Bases
2+ bases
52%
Total Bases
3+ bases
37%
Total Bases
4+ bases
29%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 26% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Cade Cavalli
Ronald Acuña Jr.
ATL · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
23%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
51%
Total Bases
3+ bases
36%
Total Bases
4+ bases
27%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 27% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Facing Cade Cavalli
Michael Harris II
ATL · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
40%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 18% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Facing Cade Cavalli
Dylan Crews
WSH · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Facing JR Ritchie
José Tena
WSH · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing JR Ritchie
Mauricio Dubón
ATL · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Cade Cavalli
Ozzie Albies
ATL · bats S · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.
- Batting 5 · bats S
- Facing Cade Cavalli
Mike Yastrzemski
ATL · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Cade Cavalli
Jim Jarvis
ATL · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.
- Batting 9 · bats L
- Facing Cade Cavalli
Daylen Lile
WSH · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Facing JR Ritchie
Austin Riley
ATL · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 62% against 66%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Facing Cade Cavalli
Jorbit Vivas
WSH · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
30%
Total Bases
3+ bases
15%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 66%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Facing JR Ritchie
Nasim Nuñez
WSH · bats S · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
5%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
28%
Total Bases
3+ bases
13%
Total Bases
4+ bases
7%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 66%.
- Batting 7 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing JR Ritchie
Keibert Ruiz
WSH · bats S · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 66%.
- Batting 9 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing JR Ritchie
IV · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
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