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AI MODEL READ

CONFIRMED LINEUPS

TEX vs HOU

Texas Rangers at Houston Astros

Sunday, August 2, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the TEX @ HOU simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

TEXASTEX
0·0
HOUSTONHOU
TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

TEX DUGOUTHOU DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

Joc Pederson (L) vs HP

CT88.7
CH86
CH86.1
SL84.3
FB96.5

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

Joc Pederson in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · JOC PEDERSON

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

HOU to win

57%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

HOU -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL HOU

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

HOU wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYJoc Pederson at the plate · pitch 1 of 5

event 1 / 77 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

Texas vs Houston Winner?

54%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

GAME TOTAL

HOU Over 4.5 runs

47%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

vulnerable matchup · straight from our 5,000-trial sim · lineup is 10-for-33 (.303) with 3 HR vs. this starter, career

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEEVEN
LINEUP EDGEHOU

TEX STARTER

Kumar Rocker

SHAKY
4.6
PROJECTED Ks
92
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Slider · 38% · 41% whiffSinker · 29% · 9% whiffCutter · 15% · 21% whiff

Watch out: Sinker is getting hit hard lately.

HOU STARTER

Peter Lambert

SHAKY
5.0
PROJECTED Ks
94
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 30% · 25% whiffChangeup · 23% · 37% whiffSlider · 15% · 26% whiff

Peter Lambert grades poor (Pitching+ 94) vs Kumar Rocker grades poor (Pitching+ 92)

TEX LINEUP

  1. 1Joc Pederson (L)hit 65% · HR 25%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    25%

    HOME RUN

    45%

    2+ BASES

    33%

    3+ BASES

    27%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    50%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Wyatt Langford (R)hit 67% · HR 21%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    21%

    HOME RUN

    46%

    2+ BASES

    30%

    3+ BASES

    23%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    45%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Corey Seager (L)hit 60% · HR 19%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    21%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Brandon Nimmo (L)hit 60% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Jake Burger (R)hit 58% · HR 17%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Evan Carter (L)hit 54% · HR 10%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Ezequiel Duran (R)hit 57% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Elias Díaz (R)hit 53% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Cam Cauley (R)hit 51% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

HOU LINEUP

  1. 1Jeremy Peña (R)hit 71% · HR 22%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    71%

    1+ HIT

    33%

    2+ HITS

    22%

    HOME RUN

    46%

    2+ BASES

    31%

    3+ BASES

    24%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    54%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Yordan Alvarez (L)hit 73% · HR 37%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    73%

    1+ HIT

    35%

    2+ HITS

    37%

    HOME RUN

    55%

    2+ BASES

    43%

    3+ BASES

    38%

    4+ BASES

    47%

    RBI

    24%

    2+ RBIs

    58%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Isaac Paredes (R)hit 64% · HR 18%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    40%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Christian Walker (R)hit 64% · HR 23%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    23%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    29%

    3+ BASES

    24%

    4+ BASES

    37%

    RBI

    17%

    2+ RBIs

    40%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Taylor Trammell (L)hit 63% · HR 19%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    27%

    3+ BASES

    21%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Jose Altuve (R)hit 56% · HR 12%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Cam Smith (R)hit 54% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Nick Allen (R)hit 53% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    24%

    2+ BASES

    11%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Christian Vázquez (R)hit 52% · HR 10%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

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Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

TEX HOU

Game Markets

TEX @ HOU · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

HOU to win

57%

1st 5 Innings

HOU F5

47%

Game Total

Over 8.5

52%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

57%

Run Line

HOU -1.5

40%

Team Total

TEX Over 4.5

42%

Team Total

HOU Over 4.5

49%

THE READ

HOU projects to outscore TEX by 0.48 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: TEX 4.36, HOU 4.84
  • Kumar Rocker (TEX) vs Peter Lambert (HOU)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
KR

Kumar Rocker

TEX SP · vs. HOU

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

51%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

32%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

17%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

3%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

72%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

24%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

60%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

46%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.6 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.6 strikeouts
  • 51% to reach 5+ against HOU
PL

Peter Lambert

HOU SP · vs. TEX

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

58%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

37%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

20%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

4%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

90%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

25%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

55%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

40%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.0 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.0 strikeouts
  • 58% to reach 5+ against TEX
YA

Yordan Alvarez

HOU · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

37%

Hits

1+ hits

77%

Hits

2+ hits

37%

Total Bases

2+ bases

58%

Total Bases

3+ bases

46%

Total Bases

4+ bases

40%

RBIs

1+ RBI

49%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

25%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 37% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Kumar Rocker
JP

Joc Pederson

TEX · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

25%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

35%

Total Bases

4+ bases

29%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 25% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Peter Lambert
JP

Jeremy Peña

HOU · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

74%

Hits

2+ hits

35%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 35% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Kumar Rocker
CW

Christian Walker

HOU · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

23%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

39%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 18% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Facing Kumar Rocker
WL

Wyatt Langford

TEX · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

32%

Total Bases

4+ bases

25%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 3+ bases — 32% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Peter Lambert
TT

Taylor Trammell

HOU · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 15% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Facing Kumar Rocker
CS

Corey Seager

TEX · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Peter Lambert
IP

Isaac Paredes

HOU · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 15% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing Kumar Rocker
JB

Jake Burger

TEX · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Peter Lambert
BN

Brandon Nimmo

TEX · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Facing Peter Lambert
ED

Ezequiel Duran

TEX · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 63%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Facing Peter Lambert
JA

Jose Altuve

HOU · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 63%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Kumar Rocker
CS

Cam Smith

HOU · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 63%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Facing Kumar Rocker
EC

Evan Carter

TEX · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 63%.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Peter Lambert
NA

Nick Allen

HOU · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

25%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 63%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Kumar Rocker
ED

Elias Díaz

TEX · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 63%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Peter Lambert
CV

Christian Vázquez

HOU · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 63%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Kumar Rocker
CC

Cam Cauley

TEX · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 63%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Facing Peter Lambert

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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