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AI MODEL READ

CONFIRMED LINEUPS

STL vs TOR

St. Louis Cardinals at Toronto Blue Jays

Sunday, August 2, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the STL @ TOR simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

ST. LOUISSTL
0·0
TORONTOTOR
TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

STL DUGOUTTOR DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

Lars Nootbaar (L) vs HP

FB94.2
CH84.8

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

Lars Nootbaar in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · LARS NOOTBAAR

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

TOR to win

53%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

TOR -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL TOR

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

TOR wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYLars Nootbaar at the plate · pitch 1 of 2

event 1 / 77 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

St. Louis vs Toronto Winner?

56%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

our sim and the sharpest books agree

GAME TOTAL

TOR Over 4.5 runs

35%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

straight from our 5,000-trial sim · lineup is 6-for-16 (.375) with 2 HR vs. this starter, career · 81°F, 15mph wind

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGESTL
LINEUP EDGEEVEN

STL STARTER

Matthew Liberatore

AVERAGE
3.6
PROJECTED Ks
96
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 32% · 12% whiffSlider · 24% · 38% whiffCurveball · 17% · 38% whiff

TOR STARTER

Max Scherzer

SHAKY
2.6
PROJECTED Ks
92
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 46% · 14% whiffSlider · 22% · 20% whiffChangeup · 17% · 18% whiff

Watch out: 4-Seam Fastball is getting hit hard lately.

Max Scherzer grades poor (Pitching+ 92) vs Matthew Liberatore grades avg (Pitching+ 96)

STL LINEUP

  1. 1Lars Nootbaar (L)hit 66% · HR 15%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    41%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    49%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Jordan Walker (R)hit 67% · HR 23%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    23%

    HOME RUN

    45%

    2+ BASES

    32%

    3+ BASES

    25%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    49%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Alec Burleson (L)hit 68% · HR 20%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    20%

    HOME RUN

    45%

    2+ BASES

    30%

    3+ BASES

    23%

    4+ BASES

    37%

    RBI

    17%

    2+ RBIs

    40%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Iván Herrera (R)hit 58% · HR 12%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Masyn Winn (R)hit 56% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Bryan Torres (L)hit 58% · HR 13%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7José Fermín (R)hit 54% · HR 10%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Nathan Church (L)hit 54% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Blaze Jordan (R)hit 53% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

TOR LINEUP

  1. 1Luis Urías (R)hit 64% · HR 18%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    21%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    45%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)hit 67% · HR 13%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    43%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Kazuma Okamoto (R)hit 65% · HR 21%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    21%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    28%

    3+ BASES

    22%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    43%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4George Springer (R)hit 68% · HR 19%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    45%

    2+ BASES

    29%

    3+ BASES

    22%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    43%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Alejandro Kirk (R)hit 60% · HR 12%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Ernie Clement (R)hit 62% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Myles Straw (R)hit 53% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Daulton Varsho (L)hit 56% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Andrés Giménez (L)hit 52% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    25%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

STL TOR

Game Markets

STL @ TOR · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

TOR to win

53%

1st 5 Innings

TOR F5

43%

Game Total

Over 8.5

48%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

55%

Run Line

TOR -1.5

36%

Team Total

STL Over 4.5

42%

Team Total

TOR Over 4.5

42%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 8.64 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: STL 4.30, TOR 4.34
  • Matthew Liberatore (STL) vs Max Scherzer (TOR)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
ML

Matthew Liberatore

STL SP · vs. TOR

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

28%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

14%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

44%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

7%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

50%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

36%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.6 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.6 strikeouts
  • 28% to reach 5+ against TOR
MS

Max Scherzer

TOR SP · vs. STL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

12%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

0%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

30%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

9%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

40%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

28%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 2.6 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 2.6 strikeouts
  • 12% to reach 5+ against STL
JW

Jordan Walker

STL · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

23%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

34%

Total Bases

4+ bases

27%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 23% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Facing Max Scherzer
KO

Kazuma Okamoto

TOR · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing Matthew Liberatore
AB

Alec Burleson

STL · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

32%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 24% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Facing Max Scherzer
GS

George Springer

TOR · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 23% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Matthew Liberatore
LU

Luis Urías

TOR · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Facing Matthew Liberatore
LN

Lars Nootbaar

STL · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 3+ bases — 27% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Max Scherzer
VJ

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

TOR · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 29% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Facing Matthew Liberatore
EC

Ernie Clement

TOR · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 25% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Facing Matthew Liberatore
IH

Iván Herrera

STL · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Max Scherzer
BT

Bryan Torres

STL · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Max Scherzer
AK

Alejandro Kirk

TOR · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Facing Matthew Liberatore
MW

Masyn Winn

STL · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 63%.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Max Scherzer
DV

Daulton Varsho

TOR · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 63%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Matthew Liberatore
NC

Nathan Church

STL · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 63%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Max Scherzer
JF

José Fermín

STL · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 63%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Max Scherzer
MS

Myles Straw

TOR · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 63%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Matthew Liberatore
BJ

Blaze Jordan

STL · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 63%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Max Scherzer
AG

Andrés Giménez

TOR · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 63%.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Matthew Liberatore

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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