MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Michael King · Under 17.5 <18 Outs
walk-prone, opp lineup turns pitch counts ugly
Michael King · Under 5.5 <6 Pitcher Ks
K projection runs under in this matchup
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
SF @ SD · full-game reads
Moneyline
SF to win
53%
1st 5 Innings
SD F5
39%
Game Total
Over 8.5
41%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
44%
Run Line
SD -1.5
29%
Team Total
SF Over 4.5
41%
Team Total
SD Over 4.5
34%
THE READ
SF projects to outscore SD by 0.51 runs across 5,000 trials.
SF SP · vs. SD
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
56%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
39%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
25%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
14%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
7%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
67%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
39%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
50%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
37%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.0 Ks.
SD SP · vs. SF
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
54%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
33%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
18%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
8%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
3%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
92%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
29%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
53%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
38%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.7 Ks.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how SD hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how SF hits RHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Marine layer suppresses HR.
Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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