AI MODEL READ

CONFIRMED LINEUPS

PIT vs CIN

Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds

Sunday, August 2, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the PIT @ CIN simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

PITTSBURGHPIT

0·0

CINCINNATICIN

TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

PITCH SEQUENCE

Jake Mangum (L) vs HP

FB93.7

SL86

FB94.3

FB94.4

SL84.5

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

Jake Mangum in this spot

HIT

24%

OUT

55%

BATTER PROPS · JAKE MANGUM

HR YES (O0.5)

12%

HITS O0.5

40%

TOTAL BASES O1.5

24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5

55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

CIN to win

63%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

CIN -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL CIN

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

CIN wins F5

51%

LAST PLAYJake Mangum at the plate · pitch 1 of 5

event 1 / 87 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

Pittsburgh vs Cincinnati Winner?

71%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

sim-led read — sharp books close, not identical

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGECIN

LINEUP EDGECIN

PIT STARTER

Mitch Keller

SHAKY

3.6
PROJECTED Ks: 94
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 32% · 17% whiffSinker · 17% · 15% whiffSweeper · 16% · 24% whiff

Watch out: Sinker is getting hit hard lately.

CIN STARTER

Chase Burns

GOOD

7.5
PROJECTED Ks: 115
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 57% · 17% whiffSlider · 38% · 51% whiff

Chase Burns grades good (Pitching+ 115) vs Mitch Keller grades poor (Pitching+ 94)

PIT LINEUP

1Jake Mangum (S)hit 67% · HR 9%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
67%
1+ HIT
30%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
39%
2+ BASES
21%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
25%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
46%
SCORES A RUN
2Brandon Lowe (L)hit 68% · HR 27%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
68%
1+ HIT
30%
2+ HITS
27%
HOME RUN
49%
2+ BASES
36%
3+ BASES
29%
4+ BASES
40%
RBI
19%
2+ RBIs
51%
SCORES A RUN
3Bryan Reynolds (S)hit 63% · HR 16%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
63%
1+ HIT
26%
2+ HITS
16%
HOME RUN
41%
2+ BASES
26%
3+ BASES
19%
4+ BASES
33%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
45%
SCORES A RUN
4Esmerlyn Valdez (R)hit 65% · HR 27%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
65%
1+ HIT
27%
2+ HITS
27%
HOME RUN
47%
2+ BASES
35%
3+ BASES
29%
4+ BASES
41%
RBI
21%
2+ RBIs
47%
SCORES A RUN
5Spencer Horwitz (L)hit 64% · HR 16%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
64%
1+ HIT
26%
2+ HITS
16%
HOME RUN
41%
2+ BASES
26%
3+ BASES
19%
4+ BASES
34%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
39%
SCORES A RUN
6Nick Gonzales (R)hit 65% · HR 7%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
65%
1+ HIT
28%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
36%
2+ BASES
18%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
26%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
33%
SCORES A RUN
7Endy Rodríguez (S)hit 60% · HR 15%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
60%
1+ HIT
22%
2+ HITS
15%
HOME RUN
36%
2+ BASES
22%
3+ BASES
17%
4+ BASES
30%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
37%
SCORES A RUN
8Jacob Gonzalez (L)hit 56% · HR 10%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
56%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
31%
2+ BASES
17%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
26%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
31%
SCORES A RUN
9Jhostynxon Garcia (R)hit 52% · HR 7%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
52%
1+ HIT
16%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
26%
2+ BASES
13%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
23%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
30%
SCORES A RUN

CIN LINEUP

1Elly De La Cruz (S)hit 77% · HR 29%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
77%
1+ HIT
43%
2+ HITS
29%
HOME RUN
59%
2+ BASES
44%
3+ BASES
34%
4+ BASES
44%
RBI
20%
2+ RBIs
64%
SCORES A RUN
2Sal Stewart (R)hit 75% · HR 30%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
75%
1+ HIT
38%
2+ HITS
30%
HOME RUN
54%
2+ BASES
40%
3+ BASES
33%
4+ BASES
47%
RBI
24%
2+ RBIs
60%
SCORES A RUN
3JJ Bleday (L)hit 71% · HR 29%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
71%
1+ HIT
32%
2+ HITS
29%
HOME RUN
50%
2+ BASES
38%
3+ BASES
31%
4+ BASES
46%
RBI
23%
2+ RBIs
56%
SCORES A RUN
4Tyler Stephenson (R)hit 73% · HR 21%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
73%
1+ HIT
35%
2+ HITS
21%
HOME RUN
50%
2+ BASES
34%
3+ BASES
26%
4+ BASES
44%
RBI
21%
2+ RBIs
49%
SCORES A RUN
5Nathaniel Lowe (L)hit 70% · HR 20%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
70%
1+ HIT
32%
2+ HITS
20%
HOME RUN
46%
2+ BASES
31%
3+ BASES
24%
4+ BASES
41%
RBI
18%
2+ RBIs
45%
SCORES A RUN
6Dane Myers (R)hit 69% · HR 13%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
69%
1+ HIT
30%
2+ HITS
13%
HOME RUN
42%
2+ BASES
25%
3+ BASES
17%
4+ BASES
34%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
41%
SCORES A RUN
7Noelvi Marte (R)hit 62% · HR 12%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
62%
1+ HIT
23%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
34%
2+ BASES
20%
3+ BASES
14%
4+ BASES
31%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
36%
SCORES A RUN
8Matt McLain (R)hit 59% · HR 11%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
59%
1+ HIT
20%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
33%
2+ BASES
19%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
29%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
39%
SCORES A RUN
9Ke'Bryan Hayes (R)hit 53% · HR 8%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
53%
1+ HIT
16%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
26%
2+ BASES
14%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
26%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
37%
SCORES A RUN

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

PIT CIN

Game Markets

PIT @ CIN · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

CIN to win

63%

1st 5 Innings

CIN F5

59%

Game Total

Over 8.5

67%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

66%

Run Line

CIN -1.5

48%

Team Total

PIT Over 4.5

49%

Team Total

CIN Over 4.5

65%

THE READ

CIN projects to outscore PIT by 1.28 runs across 5,000 trials.

Projected runs: PIT 4.87, CIN 6.15
Mitch Keller (PIT) vs Chase Burns (CIN)
Run on confirmed lineups

Mitch Keller

PIT SP · vs. CIN

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

30%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

70%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

35%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

75%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

63%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.6 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

Sim projects 3.6 strikeouts
30% to reach 5+ against CIN

Chase Burns

CIN SP · vs. PIT

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

93%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

83%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

68%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

50%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

32%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

95%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

38%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

58%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

43%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.5 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

Sim projects 7.5 strikeouts
93% to reach 5+ against PIT

Elly De La Cruz

CIN · bats S · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

29%

Hits

1+ hits

81%

Hits

2+ hits

45%

Total Bases

2+ bases

63%

Total Bases

3+ bases

47%

Total Bases

4+ bases

37%

RBIs

1+ RBI

46%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

21%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 37% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 1 · bats S
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Mitch Keller

Sal Stewart

CIN · bats R · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

30%

Hits

1+ hits

79%

Hits

2+ hits

40%

Total Bases

2+ bases

58%

Total Bases

3+ bases

43%

Total Bases

4+ bases

35%

RBIs

1+ RBI

48%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

24%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 30% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 2 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Mitch Keller

JJ Bleday

CIN · bats L · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

29%

Hits

1+ hits

74%

Hits

2+ hits

34%

Total Bases

2+ bases

53%

Total Bases

3+ bases

40%

Total Bases

4+ bases

33%

RBIs

1+ RBI

47%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

24%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 29% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 3 · bats L
Facing Mitch Keller

Esmerlyn Valdez

PIT · bats R · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

27%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

50%

Total Bases

3+ bases

37%

Total Bases

4+ bases

31%

RBIs

1+ RBI

42%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

21%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 27% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 4 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Chase Burns

Brandon Lowe

PIT · bats L · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

27%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

52%

Total Bases

3+ bases

38%

Total Bases

4+ bases

31%

RBIs

1+ RBI

41%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

20%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 27% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 2 · bats L
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Chase Burns

Tyler Stephenson

CIN · bats R · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

76%

Hits

2+ hits

37%

Total Bases

2+ bases

54%

Total Bases

3+ bases

36%

Total Bases

4+ bases

28%

RBIs

1+ RBI

45%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

22%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 22% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 4 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Mitch Keller

Nathaniel Lowe

CIN · bats L · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

34%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

25%

RBIs

1+ RBI

43%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 19% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 5 · bats L
Facing Mitch Keller

Jake Mangum

PIT · bats S · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 32% against 29% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 1 · bats S
Facing Chase Burns

Dane Myers

CIN · bats R · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 72%.

Batting 6 · bats R
Facing Mitch Keller

Nick Gonzales

PIT · bats R · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.

Batting 6 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Chase Burns

Bryan Reynolds

PIT · bats S · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.

Batting 3 · bats S
Facing Chase Burns

Spencer Horwitz

PIT · bats L · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.

Batting 5 · bats L
Facing Chase Burns

Noelvi Marte

CIN · bats R · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 64% against 68%.

Batting 7 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Mitch Keller

Endy Rodríguez

PIT · bats S · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 62% against 68%.

Batting 7 · bats S
Facing Chase Burns

Matt McLain

CIN · bats R · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 61% against 68%.

Batting 8 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Mitch Keller

Jacob Gonzalez

PIT · bats L · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 68%.

Batting 8 · bats L
Facing Chase Burns

Ke'Bryan Hayes

CIN · bats R · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 68%.

Batting 9 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Mitch Keller

Jhostynxon Garcia

PIT · bats R · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 68%.

Batting 9 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Chase Burns

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.