New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs · AI Model Read · Sunday, August 2, 2026

BETFLYAISIGN IN

NEW YORKNYY

62-49 · +2 AL EAST · L1 · 6-4 L10

@SUN 2:20 PM ETCHC HOME PARK

63-48 · +2 NL CENTRAL · W1 · 6-4 L10

CHICAGOCHC

Weather

72°F · 16mph out to RF

Home plate ump

Scott Barry K+0.1%

Injuries

No injury concerns

Series so far

3-game set · 1-1 so far in 2026

— PITCHING MATCHUP

Gerrit Cole

RHP · NYYPROBABLE

STUFF+102

ERA

3.57

68.0

K/9

9.7

BB/9

1.9

WHIP

1.09

L5 STARTS2.99 ERA · 32.8% K · 3.4% BB▲ TRENDING

PITCH MIX · SEASON

44%

19%

16%

14%

4-Seam FastballSliderChangeupCurveballSinker

Colin Rea

RHP · CHCPROBABLE

STUFF+94

ERA

4.67

111.2

K/9

6.7

BB/9

3.2

WHIP

1.40

L5 STARTS4.32 ERA · 17.2% K · 7.8% BB▲ TRENDING

PITCH MIX · SEASON

42%

18%

11%

4-Seam FastballChangeupSliderSweeperSinkerCutterCurveball

— MODEL VS THE BOOKS12 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · GAME MARKETS

NYY2 · spread

Cole is the better arm tonight

— Kalshi38% book54% +16pp

NYY4 · spread

Cole is the better arm tonight

— Kalshi20% book35% +15pp

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Colin Rea · Over 16.5 17+ Outs

starter going deep into a manageable lineup

-102 DraftKings50% book74% +23pp

Ben Rice · Over 0.5 1+ RBIs

middle-order grinder running hot

+210 DraftKings32% book54% +22pp

Colin Rea · Under 5.5 <6 Pitcher Ks

stuff doesn't translate to Ks vs this lineup

-156 DraftKings61% book83% +22pp

Ben Rice · Over 0.5 1+ Runs

reaches base often, gets pushed across

+126 DraftKings44% book64% +19pp

Gerrit Cole · Under 6.5 <7 Pitcher Ks

K projection runs under in this matchup

-130 FanDuel57% book72% +15pp

Ben Rice · Over 0.5 1+ HR

hot power, Rea hittable

+410 BetRivers20% book34% +15pp

Austin Wells · Over 0.5 1+ Hits

hot stretch + soft matchup

+118 DraftKings46% book58% +12pp

Spencer Jones · Over 1.5 2+ TB

TB upside with barrel% on the rise

+200 BetRivers33% book41% +8pp

Spencer Jones · Over 0.5 1+ Hits

hot stretch + soft matchup

-143 BetOnline.59% book65% +7pp

Ryan McMahon · Over 0.5 1+ Hits

lineup spot + form pushes Over

-125 BetOnline.56% book62% +6pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETYankees 67%

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

NYY CHC

Game Markets

NYY @ CHC · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

NYY to win

67%

1st 5 Innings

CHC F5

29%

Game Total

Over 8.5

66%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

65%

Run Line

CHC -1.5

21%

Team Total

NYY Over 4.5

67%

Team Total

CHC Over 4.5

42%

THE READ

NYY projects to outscore CHC by 2.28 runs across 5,000 trials.

Projected runs: NYY 6.58, CHC 4.30
Gerrit Cole (NYY) vs Colin Rea (CHC)
Run on confirmed lineups

Gerrit Cole

NYY SP · vs. CHC

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

65%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

46%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

29%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

16%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

95%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

55%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

65%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

51%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.4 Ks.

Sim projects 5.4 strikeouts
65% to reach 5+ against CHC

Colin Rea

CHC SP · vs. NYY

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

46%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

27%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

13%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

100%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

96%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

87%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

78%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.4 Ks.

Sim projects 4.4 strikeouts
46% to reach 5+ against NYY

Ben Rice

NYY · bats L · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

45%

Hits

1+ hits

82%

Hits

2+ hits

48%

Total Bases

2+ bases

69%

Total Bases

3+ bases

57%

Total Bases

4+ bases

51%

RBIs

1+ RBI

58%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

34%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 45% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 2 · bats L
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Colin Rea

Trent Grisham

NYY · bats L · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

26%

Hits

1+ hits

75%

Hits

2+ hits

36%

Total Bases

2+ bases

54%

Total Bases

3+ bases

39%

Total Bases

4+ bases

31%

RBIs

1+ RBI

42%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 26% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 1 · bats L
Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
Facing Colin Rea

Spencer Jones

NYY · bats L · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

23%

Hits

1+ hits

77%

Hits

2+ hits

40%

Total Bases

2+ bases

56%

Total Bases

3+ bases

39%

Total Bases

4+ bases

29%

RBIs

1+ RBI

43%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

20%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 40% against 28% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 4 · bats L
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Colin Rea

Pete Crow-Armstrong

CHC · bats L · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

25%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

33%

Total Bases

2+ bases

52%

Total Bases

3+ bases

38%

Total Bases

4+ bases

30%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 25% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 1 · bats L
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Gerrit Cole

Jazz Chisholm Jr.

NYY · bats L · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

25%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

50%

Total Bases

3+ bases

36%

Total Bases

4+ bases

29%

RBIs

1+ RBI

43%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

20%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 25% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 6 · bats L
Facing Colin Rea

Amed Rosario

NYY · bats R · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

23%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

35%

Total Bases

2+ bases

50%

Total Bases

3+ bases

34%

Total Bases

4+ bases

27%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 19% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 3 · bats R
Facing Colin Rea

Ryan McMahon

NYY · bats L · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

25%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 18% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 7 · bats L
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Colin Rea

Seiya Suzuki

CHC · bats R · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 24% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 2 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Gerrit Cole

Jasson Domínguez

NYY · bats S · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.

Batting 5 · bats S
Facing Colin Rea

José Caballero

NYY · bats R · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.

Batting 8 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Colin Rea

Michael Busch

CHC · bats L · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.

Batting 3 · bats L
Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
Facing Gerrit Cole

Alex Bregman

CHC · bats R · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 64% against 67%.

Batting 4 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Gerrit Cole

Ian Happ

CHC · bats S · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 2+ bases at 41% against 43%.

Batting 5 · bats S
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Gerrit Cole

Austin Wells

NYY · bats L · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 62% against 67%.

Batting 9 · bats L
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Colin Rea

Pedro Ramírez

CHC · bats S · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 62% against 67%.

Batting 7 · bats S
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Gerrit Cole

Dansby Swanson

CHC · bats R · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ RBI at 31% against 35%.

Batting 8 · bats R
Facing Gerrit Cole

Nico Hoerner

CHC · bats R · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 67%.

Batting 6 · bats R
Hot streak, thin underlying support
Facing Gerrit Cole

Miguel Amaya

CHC · bats R · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 67%.

Batting 9 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Gerrit Cole

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

GERRIT COLE SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CHC hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%22.1%OPS-against.728

vs Left-handedK%28.3%OPS-against.660

CHC vs RHP (team)OPS.740K%21.7%

COLIN REA SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how NYY hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%15.7%OPS-against.749

vs Left-handedK%18.0%OPS-against.785

NYY vs RHP (team)OPS.723K%24.2%

— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

CHC BATTERS vs GERRIT COLE

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

NYY BATTERS vs COLIN REA

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY

THIS SERIES

NYY 1·CHC 1

3-game set · gm 3 of 3

2026 SEASON

NYY 2·CHC 2

4 played · 15 remaining

ALL-TIME (2010-)

67%NYY

NYY 18 · CHC 9 · since 2010

NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS

2026-08-01CHC 5-2

2026-07-31NYY 2-0 · Pitchers duel

2026-03-24NYY 8-3

— MARKET SNAPSHOT

Moneyline

NYY54¢ · 54%

CHC50¢ · 50%

Total 6.5

Over55¢ · 55%

Under50¢ · 50%

Run line ±1.5

NYY -1.5— · —

CHC +1.5— · —

First 5 innings

O 4.5— · —

U 4.5— · —

— LINEUP FORM · L15

NYY OFFENSE

.265L15 team wOBA

-51 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

CHC OFFENSE

.333L15 team wOBA

+17 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG

— ENVIRONMENT72° · 16mph out to RF

WRIGLEY FIELD

95HR

HR factor0.95 · below avg

Runs factor0.98 · neutral

Doubles factor1.00 · neutral

Wind-dependent — check gametime.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH

72°F

Wind16 mph out to RF

Humidity91%

Rain0%

Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

BARRY

Called K rate+0.1% vs avg

Runs per 9—

Games this yr240

Neutral zone — no K% edge either side.

— INJURY REPORTclean

Injury report unavailable.

THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

YANKEES 67%

Mean score sim 6.6–4.3 · projected total 10.9 runs · built on locked lineups

That's the simulation. The called reads — which markets the engine actually likes at today's prices, with the reasoning — publish to Edge and Sharp members.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

GO EDGE · $10/MO