AI MODEL READ
LEAGUE AVGMIN vs SEA
Minnesota Twins at Seattle Mariners
Sunday, August 2, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the MIN @ SEA simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
League Avg (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
League Avg in this spot
BATTER PROPS · LEAGUE AVG
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
SEA to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
SEA -1.5
TEAM TOTAL SEA
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
SEA wins F5
event 1 / 74 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
Minnesota vs Seattle Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN
Who has the advantage tonight.
The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.
MIN STARTER
Taj Bradley
AVERAGE- 6.5
- PROJECTED Ks
- 101
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
SEA STARTER
George Kirby
GOOD- 4.9
- PROJECTED Ks
- 112
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
George Kirby grades good (Pitching+ 112) vs Taj Bradley grades avg (Pitching+ 101)
III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
Swipe the whole board.
One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
Game Markets
MIN @ SEA · full-game reads
Moneyline
MIN to win
49%
1st 5 Innings
SEA F5
41%
Game Total
Over 8.5
35%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
39%
Run Line
SEA -1.5
32%
Team Total
MIN Over 4.5
35%
Team Total
SEA Over 4.5
33%
THE READ
The sim splits this one — 7.40 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.
- Projected runs: MIN 3.76, SEA 3.63
- Taj Bradley (MIN) vs George Kirby (SEA)
- Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
Taj Bradley
MIN SP · vs. SEA
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
82%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
67%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
49%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
32%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
18%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
87%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
45%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
49%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
35%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.5 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
- Sim projects 6.5 strikeouts
- 82% to reach 5+ against SEA
George Kirby
SEA SP · vs. MIN
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
55%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
36%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
21%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
11%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
6%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
90%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
67%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
64%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
50%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.9 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.9 strikeouts
- 55% to reach 5+ against MIN
BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
IV · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.