Not cataloged
MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Sandy Alcantara · Under 5.5 <6 Pitcher Ks
modest K rate + contact-shy opp
Griffin Conine · Over 0.5 1+ RBIs
form + position drive the RBI projection
Owen Caissie · Over 0.5 1+ Hits
L30 contact rate + matchup
Griffin Conine · Over 0.5 1+ Hits
barrel% surging, sees enough PAs
Sandy Alcantara · Over 5.5 6+ Ks
elite swing-and-miss stuff
Sandy Alcantara · Over 4.5 5+ Ks
strikeout machine on the bump
Jorge Polanco · Under 0.5 <1 RBIs
lineup spot does the work — RBIs come
Griffin Conine · Over 0.5 1+ HR
L30 power profile + matchup edge
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
MIA @ NYM · full-game reads
Moneyline
MIA to win
53%
1st 5 Innings
NYM F5
39%
Game Total
Over 8.5
53%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
53%
Run Line
NYM -1.5
31%
Team Total
MIA Over 4.5
49%
Team Total
NYM Over 4.5
42%
THE READ
MIA projects to outscore NYM by 0.59 runs across 5,000 trials.
MIA SP · vs. NYM
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
40%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
23%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
11%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
4%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
100%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
92%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
78%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
65%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.2 Ks.
NYM SP · vs. MIA
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
37%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
20%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
9%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
4%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
58%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
21%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
59%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
45%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 4.0 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
MIA · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
27%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
51%
Total Bases
3+ bases
37%
Total Bases
4+ bases
31%
RBIs
1+ RBI
46%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
23%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 27% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
MIA · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
22%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
MIA · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
21%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
49%
Total Bases
3+ bases
33%
Total Bases
4+ bases
26%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
NYM · bats S · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
35%
Total Bases
2+ bases
51%
Total Bases
3+ bases
34%
Total Bases
4+ bases
26%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 26% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
MIA · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
49%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 36% against 27% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
MIA · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 33% against 27% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
NYM · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 32% against 27% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
NYM · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
MIA · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
NYM · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 32% against 27% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
MIA · bats S · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 29% against 27% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
NYM · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 29% against 27% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
NYM · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.
NYM · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 2+ RBIs at 12% against 12%.
MIA · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 13% against 14%.
MIA · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
33%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 62% against 67%.
NYM · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 67%.
NYM · bats S · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
57%
Hits
2+ hits
16%
Total Bases
2+ bases
28%
Total Bases
3+ bases
15%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 67%.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how NYM hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIA hits RHP
Pitcher splits unavailable.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Deep OF, dead air.
Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.
Neutral zone — no K% edge either side.
Mean score sim 4.9–4.3 · projected total 9.2 runs · built on locked lineups
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