AI MODEL READ

CONFIRMED LINEUPS

KC vs COL

Kansas City Royals at Colorado Rockies

Sunday, August 2, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the KC @ COL simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

KANSAS CITYKC

0·0

COLORADOCOL

TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

PITCH SEQUENCE

Carter Jensen (L) vs HP

FB93.9

CH87.3

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

Carter Jensen in this spot

HIT

24%

OUT

55%

BATTER PROPS · CARTER JENSEN

HR YES (O0.5)

12%

HITS O0.5

40%

TOTAL BASES O1.5

24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5

55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

COL to win

53%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

COL -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL COL

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

COL wins F5

51%

LAST PLAYCarter Jensen at the plate · pitch 1 of 2

event 1 / 86 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

Kansas City vs Colorado Winner?

58%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

GAME TOTAL

COL Over 4.5 runs

62%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

vulnerable matchup · straight from our 5,000-trial sim · lineup is 10-for-34 (.294) with 1 HR vs. this starter, career · 84°F, 11mph wind

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEEVEN

LINEUP EDGEEVEN

KC STARTER

Seth Lugo

SHAKY

3.1
PROJECTED Ks: 94
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Sinker · 20% · 12% whiffCurveball · 18% · 21% whiffCutter · 16% · 24% whiff

Watch out: Sinker is getting hit hard lately.

COL STARTER

Kyle Freeland

SHAKY

3.5
PROJECTED Ks: 95
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 25% · 14% whiffCutter · 22% · 18% whiffCurveball · 21% · 33% whiff

Kyle Freeland grades poor (Pitching+ 95) vs Seth Lugo grades poor (Pitching+ 94)

KC LINEUP

1Carter Jensen (L)hit 76% · HR 23%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
76%
1+ HIT
42%
2+ HITS
23%
HOME RUN
55%
2+ BASES
39%
3+ BASES
30%
4+ BASES
42%
RBI
19%
2+ RBIs
54%
SCORES A RUN
2Nick Loftin (R)hit 74% · HR 14%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
74%
1+ HIT
36%
2+ HITS
14%
HOME RUN
49%
2+ BASES
30%
3+ BASES
21%
4+ BASES
34%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
50%
SCORES A RUN
3Jac Caglianone (L)hit 77% · HR 29%COLD·UNLUCKY›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
77%
1+ HIT
42%
2+ HITS
29%
HOME RUN
57%
2+ BASES
43%
3+ BASES
34%
4+ BASES
46%
RBI
24%
2+ RBIs
53%
SCORES A RUN
4Salvador Perez (R)hit 73% · HR 23%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
73%
1+ HIT
36%
2+ HITS
23%
HOME RUN
50%
2+ BASES
34%
3+ BASES
27%
4+ BASES
43%
RBI
20%
2+ RBIs
47%
SCORES A RUN
5Starling Marte (R)hit 68% · HR 11%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
68%
1+ HIT
31%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
40%
2+ BASES
23%
3+ BASES
15%
4+ BASES
30%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
43%
SCORES A RUN
6John Rave (L)hit 70% · HR 20%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
70%
1+ HIT
33%
2+ HITS
20%
HOME RUN
48%
2+ BASES
33%
3+ BASES
25%
4+ BASES
38%
RBI
17%
2+ RBIs
50%
SCORES A RUN
7Tyler Tolbert (R)hit 74% · HR 20%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
74%
1+ HIT
37%
2+ HITS
20%
HOME RUN
50%
2+ BASES
33%
3+ BASES
25%
4+ BASES
41%
RBI
19%
2+ RBIs
50%
SCORES A RUN
8Josh Rojas (L)hit 66% · HR 14%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
66%
1+ HIT
28%
2+ HITS
14%
HOME RUN
40%
2+ BASES
24%
3+ BASES
17%
4+ BASES
36%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
42%
SCORES A RUN
9Luke Maile (R)hit 66% · HR 14%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
66%
1+ HIT
27%
2+ HITS
14%
HOME RUN
39%
2+ BASES
24%
3+ BASES
17%
4+ BASES
35%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
44%
SCORES A RUN

COL LINEUP

1Jake McCarthy (L)hit 75% · HR 19%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
75%
1+ HIT
40%
2+ HITS
19%
HOME RUN
51%
2+ BASES
35%
3+ BASES
25%
4+ BASES
36%
RBI
15%
2+ RBIs
59%
SCORES A RUN
2Mickey Moniak (L)hit 81% · HR 41%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
81%
1+ HIT
47%
2+ HITS
41%
HOME RUN
64%
2+ BASES
52%
3+ BASES
44%
4+ BASES
55%
RBI
30%
2+ RBIs
65%
SCORES A RUN
3Cole Carrigg (S)hit 73% · HR 22%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
73%
1+ HIT
35%
2+ HITS
22%
HOME RUN
50%
2+ BASES
35%
3+ BASES
26%
4+ BASES
42%
RBI
18%
2+ RBIs
56%
SCORES A RUN
4TJ Rumfield (L)hit 75% · HR 22%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
75%
1+ HIT
39%
2+ HITS
22%
HOME RUN
52%
2+ BASES
35%
3+ BASES
27%
4+ BASES
46%
RBI
22%
2+ RBIs
52%
SCORES A RUN
5Willi Castro (S)hit 71% · HR 23%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
71%
1+ HIT
34%
2+ HITS
23%
HOME RUN
48%
2+ BASES
33%
3+ BASES
25%
4+ BASES
42%
RBI
20%
2+ RBIs
49%
SCORES A RUN
6Troy Johnston (L)hit 69% · HR 9%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
69%
1+ HIT
30%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
41%
2+ BASES
23%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
32%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
40%
SCORES A RUN
7Edouard Julien (L)hit 65% · HR 12%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
65%
1+ HIT
27%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
38%
2+ BASES
23%
3+ BASES
16%
4+ BASES
34%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
41%
SCORES A RUN
8Brett Sullivan (L)hit 64% · HR 15%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
64%
1+ HIT
24%
2+ HITS
15%
HOME RUN
37%
2+ BASES
23%
3+ BASES
17%
4+ BASES
34%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
41%
SCORES A RUN
9Ezequiel Tovar (R)hit 62% · HR 14%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
62%
1+ HIT
22%
2+ HITS
14%
HOME RUN
36%
2+ BASES
21%
3+ BASES
16%
4+ BASES
31%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
42%
SCORES A RUN

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

KC COL

Game Markets

KC @ COL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

COL to win

53%

1st 5 Innings

COL F5

49%

Game Total

Over 8.5

76%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

74%

Run Line

COL -1.5

38%

Team Total

KC Over 4.5

62%

Team Total

COL Over 4.5

63%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 12.16 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

Projected runs: KC 6.02, COL 6.14
Seth Lugo (KC) vs Kyle Freeland (COL)
Run on confirmed lineups

Seth Lugo

KC SP · vs. COL

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

20%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

76%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

43%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

79%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

69%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.1 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

Sim projects 3.1 strikeouts
20% to reach 5+ against COL

Kyle Freeland

COL SP · vs. KC

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

26%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

12%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

69%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

72%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

59%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.5 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

Sim projects 3.5 strikeouts
26% to reach 5+ against KC

Mickey Moniak

COL · bats L · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

39%

Hits

1+ hits

82%

Hits

2+ hits

47%

Total Bases

2+ bases

66%

Total Bases

3+ bases

53%

Total Bases

4+ bases

45%

RBIs

1+ RBI

54%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

29%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 39% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 2 · bats L
Facing Seth Lugo

Jac Caglianone

KC · bats L · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

29%

Hits

1+ hits

79%

Hits

2+ hits

43%

Total Bases

2+ bases

60%

Total Bases

3+ bases

44%

Total Bases

4+ bases

36%

RBIs

1+ RBI

49%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

25%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 29% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 3 · bats L
Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
Facing Kyle Freeland

Carter Jensen

KC · bats L · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

80%

Hits

2+ hits

44%

Total Bases

2+ bases

59%

Total Bases

3+ bases

41%

Total Bases

4+ bases

31%

RBIs

1+ RBI

41%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 31% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 1 · bats L
Facing Kyle Freeland

TJ Rumfield

COL · bats L · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

77%

Hits

2+ hits

39%

Total Bases

2+ bases

53%

Total Bases

3+ bases

36%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

46%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

21%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 21% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 4 · bats L
Facing Seth Lugo

Willi Castro

COL · bats S · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

75%

Hits

2+ hits

35%

Total Bases

2+ bases

51%

Total Bases

3+ bases

35%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

43%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

21%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 5 · bats S
Facing Seth Lugo

Salvador Perez

KC · bats R · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

75%

Hits

2+ hits

36%

Total Bases

2+ bases

52%

Total Bases

3+ bases

34%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

41%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 4 · bats R
Facing Kyle Freeland

Cole Carrigg

COL · bats S · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

76%

Hits

2+ hits

38%

Total Bases

2+ bases

54%

Total Bases

3+ bases

37%

Total Bases

4+ bases

27%

RBIs

1+ RBI

42%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 27% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 3 · bats S
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Seth Lugo

Jake McCarthy

COL · bats L · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

77%

Hits

2+ hits

38%

Total Bases

2+ bases

53%

Total Bases

3+ bases

36%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 3+ bases — 36% against 32% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 1 · bats L
Facing Seth Lugo

Nick Loftin

KC · bats R · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

76%

Hits

2+ hits

38%

Total Bases

2+ bases

50%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 38% against 34% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 2 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Kyle Freeland

Tyler Tolbert

KC · bats R · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

75%

Hits

2+ hits

36%

Total Bases

2+ bases

50%

Total Bases

3+ bases

32%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 75%.

Batting 7 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Kyle Freeland

John Rave

KC · bats L · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

34%

Total Bases

2+ bases

50%

Total Bases

3+ bases

34%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 73%.

Batting 6 · bats L
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Kyle Freeland

Troy Johnston

COL · bats L · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 72%.

Batting 6 · bats L
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Seth Lugo

Starling Marte

KC · bats R · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 72%.

Batting 5 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Kyle Freeland

Edouard Julien

COL · bats L · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 68% against 73%.

Batting 7 · bats L
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Seth Lugo

Luke Maile

KC · bats R · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ RBI at 36% against 39%.

Batting 9 · bats R
Facing Kyle Freeland

Josh Rojas

KC · bats L · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 67% against 73%.

Batting 8 · bats L
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Kyle Freeland

Brett Sullivan

COL · bats L · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 65% against 73%.

Batting 8 · bats L
Facing Seth Lugo

Ezequiel Tovar

COL · bats R · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 61% against 73%.

Batting 9 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Seth Lugo

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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