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DETROITDET
53-58 · +4 AL CENTRAL · W2 · 6-4 L10
@SUN 4:05 PM ETATH HOME PARK
45-66 · +4 AL WEST · L4 · 2-8 L10
ATH
Weather
—
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 2-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Keider Montero
RHP · DETPROBABLE
STUFF+94
ERA
3.34
IP
110.1
K/9
6.4
BB/9
1.9
WHIP
1.02
L5 STARTS4.36 ERA · 25.6% K · 3.8% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
32%
22%
17%
15%
14%
4-Seam FastballSinkerSliderCurveballChangeup
Gage Jump
LHP · ATHPROBABLE
STUFF+109
ERA
4.00
IP
63.0
K/9
9.7
BB/9
3.6
WHIP
1.40
L5 STARTS6.25 ERA · 26.2% K · 14% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
49%
25%
12%
4-Seam FastballSliderCurveballSweeper
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETATH 53%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

DET ATH

Game Markets

DET @ ATH · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

ATH to win

53%

1st 5 Innings

ATH F5

46%

Game Total

Over 8.5

43%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

48%

Run Line

ATH -1.5

36%

Team Total

DET Over 4.5

38%

Team Total

ATH Over 4.5

40%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 8.17 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: DET 4.01, ATH 4.16
  • Keider Montero (DET) vs Gage Jump (ATH)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
KM

Keider Montero

DET SP · vs. ATH

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

14%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

57%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

18%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

57%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

44%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 2.8 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 2.8 strikeouts
  • 14% to reach 5+ against ATH
GJ

Gage Jump

ATH SP · vs. DET

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

43%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

26%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

13%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

3%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

44%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

16%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

43%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

28%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.3 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.3 strikeouts
  • 43% to reach 5+ against DET

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

KEIDER MONTERO SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ATH hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%19.0%OPS-against.602
vs Left-handedK%16.8%OPS-against.629
ATH vs LHP (team)OPS.719K%24.6%

GAGE JUMP SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how DET hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%26.0%OPS-against.779
vs Left-handedK%23.9%OPS-against.731
DET vs RHP (team)OPS.739K%22.9%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

ATH BATTERS vs KEIDER MONTERO

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

DET BATTERS vs GAGE JUMP

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
DET 2·ATH 0
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
DET 5·ATH 0
5 played · 14 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
93%DET
DET 50 · ATH 4 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-02DET 8-6
2026-08-01DET 13-1 · Blowout
2026-07-09DET 4-1
— MARKET SNAPSHOT

Market snapshot unavailable (no recent odds).

— LINEUP FORM · L15

DET OFFENSE

.337L15 team wOBA
+21 pts vs LG AVG · TOP 6

ATH OFFENSE

.316L15 team wOBA
0 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD
— ENVIRONMENT

Park factors unavailable.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH

Forecast loading — check back within 3 hours of first pitch.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO