MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Munetaka Murakami · Over 0.5 1+ Runs
high-OBP profile + lineup behind drives runs
Sam Antonacci · Over 0.5 1+ Runs
on-base profile + lineup behind
Braden Montgomery · Under 0.5 <1 Hits
barrel% surging, sees enough PAs
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
CWS @ TB · full-game reads
Moneyline
TB to win
59%
1st 5 Innings
TB F5
47%
Game Total
Over 8.5
40%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
44%
Run Line
TB -1.5
39%
Team Total
CWS Over 4.5
33%
Team Total
TB Over 4.5
40%
THE READ
TB projects to outscore CWS by 0.49 runs across 5,000 trials.
CWS SP · vs. TB
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
25%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
12%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
4%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
43%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
4%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
48%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
34%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.5 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
TB SP · vs. CWS
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
86%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
72%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
54%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
35%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
19%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
73%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
9%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
34%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
21%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.7 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
CWS · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
30%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
35%
Total Bases
4+ bases
31%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 30% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
CWS · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
21%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
TB · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 16% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
TB · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 30% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
CWS · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
51%
Hits
2+ hits
14%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
TB · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 29% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
TB · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 26% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
TB · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 13% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
CWS · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
21%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 23% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
TB · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 22% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
CWS · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
56%
Hits
2+ hits
17%
Total Bases
2+ bases
33%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 56%.
CWS · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
52%
Hits
2+ hits
14%
Total Bases
2+ bases
30%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 52%.
TB · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
31%
Total Bases
3+ bases
15%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.
TB · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
30%
Total Bases
3+ bases
14%
Total Bases
4+ bases
8%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.
CWS · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
58%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
33%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 58%.
TB · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
56%
Hits
2+ hits
16%
Total Bases
2+ bases
27%
Total Bases
3+ bases
15%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 56%.
CWS · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
50%
Hits
2+ hits
13%
Total Bases
2+ bases
23%
Total Bases
3+ bases
11%
Total Bases
4+ bases
7%
RBIs
1+ RBI
18%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 50% against 59%.
CWS · bats S · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
42%
Hits
2+ hits
9%
Total Bases
2+ bases
20%
Total Bases
3+ bases
12%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
18%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 42% against 59%.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TB hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CWS hits LHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Interim park post-Tropicana damage.
Light wind out to CF · neutral HR conditions.
Neutral zone — no K% edge either side.
Mean score sim 3.7–4.2 · projected total 7.8 runs · built on locked lineups
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