Not yet announced by the team.
Not yet announced by the team.
MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Gavin Williams · Over 7.5 8+ Ks
elite swing-and-miss stuff
Gavin Williams · Over 6.5 7+ Ks
elite swing-and-miss stuff
Steven Kwan · Under 0.5 <1 Hits
lineup spot + form pushes Over
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
ARI @ CLE · full-game reads
Moneyline
CLE to win
62%
1st 5 Innings
CLE F5
55%
Game Total
Over 8.5
32%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
40%
Run Line
CLE -1.5
44%
Team Total
ARI Over 4.5
25%
Team Total
CLE Over 4.5
39%
THE READ
CLE projects to outscore ARI by 1.00 runs across 5,000 trials.
ARI SP · vs. CLE
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
16%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
7%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
89%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
46%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
62%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
48%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.0 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
CLE SP · vs. ARI
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
90%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
79%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
65%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
48%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
33%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
91%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
61%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
41%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
25%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.5 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
CLE · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
CLE · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 15% against 9% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
CLE · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 14% against 9% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
ARI · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
58%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 20% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
ARI · bats S · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 15% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
CLE · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 12% against 9% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
CLE · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
20%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
5%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 24% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
ARI · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 21% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
CLE · bats S · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
31%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 20% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
CLE · bats S · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 20% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
ARI · bats S · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
54%
Hits
2+ hits
17%
Total Bases
2+ bases
30%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
21%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 54%.
ARI · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
51%
Hits
2+ hits
14%
Total Bases
2+ bases
27%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
20%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 51%.
CLE · bats L · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
53%
Hits
2+ hits
15%
Total Bases
2+ bases
26%
Total Bases
3+ bases
13%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 56%.
ARI · bats S · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
53%
Hits
2+ hits
16%
Total Bases
2+ bases
27%
Total Bases
3+ bases
14%
Total Bases
4+ bases
8%
RBIs
1+ RBI
18%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
5%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 56%.
CLE · bats S · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
52%
Hits
2+ hits
14%
Total Bases
2+ bases
25%
Total Bases
3+ bases
12%
Total Bases
4+ bases
8%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 56%.
ARI · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
50%
Hits
2+ hits
14%
Total Bases
2+ bases
27%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 10% against 11%.
ARI · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
48%
Hits
2+ hits
12%
Total Bases
2+ bases
25%
Total Bases
3+ bases
14%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
18%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 48% against 56%.
ARI · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
42%
Hits
2+ hits
10%
Total Bases
2+ bases
21%
Total Bases
3+ bases
11%
Total Bases
4+ bases
8%
RBIs
1+ RBI
16%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
5%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 42% against 56%.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CLE hits LHP
Pitcher splits unavailable.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ARI hits RHP
Pitcher splits unavailable.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Pitcher-friendly.
Light wind in from CF · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Mean score sim 3.1–4.1 · projected total 7.2 runs · built on locked lineups
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