BETFLYAISIGN IN

AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

WSH vs ATL

Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves

Saturday, August 1, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the WSH @ ATL simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

WASHINGTONWSH
0·0
ATLANTAATL
TOP 11-01 OUT

FIELD

WSH DUGOUTATL DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

James Wood (L) vs HP

FB94.4
SL85.6
FB94.5
FB94.6
CV76.7

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

James Wood in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · JAMES WOOD

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

ATL to win

53%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

ATL -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL ATL

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

ATL wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYJames Wood at the plate · pitch 1 of 5

event 1 / 83 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✗ MISSED

Washington vs Atlanta Winner?

50%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEWSH
LINEUP EDGEATL

WSH STARTER

Miles Mikolas

AVERAGE
2.0
PROJECTED Ks
97
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 26% · 14% whiffSinker · 25% · 10% whiffSlider · 23% · 17% whiff

ATL STARTER

Martín Pérez

SHAKY
2.8
PROJECTED Ks
92
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Sinker · 33% · 8% whiffChangeup · 30% · 32% whiffCutter · 24% · 20% whiff

Martín Pérez grades poor (Pitching+ 92) vs Miles Mikolas grades avg (Pitching+ 97)

WSH LINEUP

  1. 1James Wood (L)hit 73% · HR 33%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    73%

    1+ HIT

    36%

    2+ HITS

    33%

    HOME RUN

    55%

    2+ BASES

    42%

    3+ BASES

    35%

    4+ BASES

    44%

    RBI

    20%

    2+ RBIs

    61%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Andrés Chaparro (R)hit 68% · HR 25%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    25%

    HOME RUN

    47%

    2+ BASES

    35%

    3+ BASES

    28%

    4+ BASES

    39%

    RBI

    18%

    2+ RBIs

    49%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Dylan Crews (R)hit 63% · HR 17%HOT·THIN›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4CJ Abrams (L)hit 69% · HR 28%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    69%

    1+ HIT

    32%

    2+ HITS

    28%

    HOME RUN

    50%

    2+ BASES

    36%

    3+ BASES

    30%

    4+ BASES

    43%

    RBI

    21%

    2+ RBIs

    49%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Brady Househit 59% · HR 13%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Jacob Young (R)hit 59% · HR 11%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Nasim Nuñez (S)hit 57% · HR 4%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    4%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    11%

    3+ BASES

    6%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Luis García Jr. (L)hit 68% · HR 27%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    27%

    HOME RUN

    49%

    2+ BASES

    36%

    3+ BASES

    29%

    4+ BASES

    43%

    RBI

    21%

    2+ RBIs

    49%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Keibert Ruiz (S)hit 60% · HR 12%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

ATL LINEUP

  1. 1Drake Baldwin (L)hit 77% · HR 30%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    77%

    1+ HIT

    42%

    2+ HITS

    30%

    HOME RUN

    55%

    2+ BASES

    41%

    3+ BASES

    33%

    4+ BASES

    44%

    RBI

    20%

    2+ RBIs

    62%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Ronald Acuña Jr.hit 76% · HR 24%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    76%

    1+ HIT

    39%

    2+ HITS

    24%

    HOME RUN

    55%

    2+ BASES

    39%

    3+ BASES

    29%

    4+ BASES

    41%

    RBI

    20%

    2+ RBIs

    61%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Matt Olson (L)hit 77% · HR 33%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    77%

    1+ HIT

    40%

    2+ HITS

    33%

    HOME RUN

    58%

    2+ BASES

    44%

    3+ BASES

    36%

    4+ BASES

    51%

    RBI

    27%

    2+ RBIs

    56%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Michael Harris II (L)hit 76% · HR 27%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    76%

    1+ HIT

    40%

    2+ HITS

    27%

    HOME RUN

    54%

    2+ BASES

    39%

    3+ BASES

    31%

    4+ BASES

    48%

    RBI

    24%

    2+ RBIs

    48%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Ozzie Albies (S)hit 66% · HR 15%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Dominic Smith (L)hit 66% · HR 12%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Austin Riley (R)hit 65% · HR 15%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Mike Yastrzemskihit 63% · HR 12%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    40%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Jim Jarvis (L)hit 66% · HR 12%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    41%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    44%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

Every bat, graded by the sim.

Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

UPGRADE TO EDGE — $10/mo

III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

Swipe the whole board.

One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

WSH ATL

Game Markets

WSH @ ATL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

ATL to win

58%

1st 5 Innings

ATL F5

49%

Game Total

Over 8.5

72%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

75%

Run Line

ATL -1.5

43%

Team Total

WSH Over 4.5

57%

Team Total

ATL Over 4.5

65%

THE READ

ATL projects to outscore WSH by 0.66 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: WSH 5.55, ATL 6.21
  • Miles Mikolas (WSH) vs Martín Pérez (ATL)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
MM

Miles Mikolas

WSH SP · vs. ATL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

0%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

0%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

48%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

20%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

70%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

58%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 2.0 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 2.0 strikeouts
  • 5% to reach 5+ against ATL
MP

Martín Pérez

ATL SP · vs. WSH

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

14%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

0%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

36%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

1%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

58%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

43%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 2.8 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 2.8 strikeouts
  • 14% to reach 5+ against WSH
MO

Matt Olson

ATL · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

33%

Hits

1+ hits

80%

Hits

2+ hits

42%

Total Bases

2+ bases

62%

Total Bases

3+ bases

47%

Total Bases

4+ bases

38%

RBIs

1+ RBI

53%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

28%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 28% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Miles Mikolas
JW

James Wood

WSH · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

33%

Hits

1+ hits

76%

Hits

2+ hits

38%

Total Bases

2+ bases

59%

Total Bases

3+ bases

44%

Total Bases

4+ bases

37%

RBIs

1+ RBI

46%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

21%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 33% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Martín Pérez
DB

Drake Baldwin

ATL · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

30%

Hits

1+ hits

81%

Hits

2+ hits

44%

Total Bases

2+ bases

59%

Total Bases

3+ bases

43%

Total Bases

4+ bases

35%

RBIs

1+ RBI

45%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

21%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 30% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Miles Mikolas
MI

Michael Harris II

ATL · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

27%

Hits

1+ hits

79%

Hits

2+ hits

42%

Total Bases

2+ bases

58%

Total Bases

3+ bases

41%

Total Bases

4+ bases

33%

RBIs

1+ RBI

49%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

25%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 25% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Facing Miles Mikolas
CA

CJ Abrams

WSH · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

28%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

33%

Total Bases

2+ bases

53%

Total Bases

3+ bases

39%

Total Bases

4+ bases

32%

RBIs

1+ RBI

44%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

22%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 28% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Martín Pérez
LJ

Luis García Jr.

WSH · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

27%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

52%

Total Bases

3+ bases

38%

Total Bases

4+ bases

31%

RBIs

1+ RBI

44%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

22%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 27% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Martín Pérez
RJ

Ronald Acuña Jr.

ATL · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

24%

Hits

1+ hits

79%

Hits

2+ hits

41%

Total Bases

2+ bases

58%

Total Bases

3+ bases

41%

Total Bases

4+ bases

31%

RBIs

1+ RBI

42%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

21%

THE READ

Stands out most on 3+ bases — 41% against 31% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2
  • Facing Miles Mikolas
AC

Andrés Chaparro

WSH · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

25%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

51%

Total Bases

3+ bases

37%

Total Bases

4+ bases

29%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 25% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Martín Pérez
JJ

Jim Jarvis

ATL · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 69%.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Facing Miles Mikolas
DS

Dominic Smith

ATL · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 69%.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Miles Mikolas
OA

Ozzie Albies

ATL · bats S · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 69%.

  • Batting 5 · bats S
  • Facing Miles Mikolas
AR

Austin Riley

ATL · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Facing Miles Mikolas
DC

Dylan Crews

WSH · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 66% against 70%.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Hot streak, thin underlying support
  • Facing Martín Pérez
MY

Mike Yastrzemski

ATL · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 66% against 70%.

  • Batting 8
  • Facing Miles Mikolas
KR

Keibert Ruiz

WSH · bats S · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 62% against 70%.

  • Batting 9 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Martín Pérez
BH

Brady House

WSH · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 62% against 70%.

  • Batting 5
  • Facing Martín Pérez
JY

Jacob Young

WSH · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 62% against 70%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Martín Pérez
NN

Nasim Nuñez

WSH · bats S · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

4%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

7%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 70%.

  • Batting 7 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Martín Pérez

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.