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AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

TEX vs HOU

Texas Rangers at Houston Astros

Saturday, August 1, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the TEX @ HOU simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

TEXASTEX
0·0
HOUSTONHOU
TOP 11-01 OUT

FIELD

TEX DUGOUTHOU DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

Joc Pederson (L) vs HP

CH83.3
FB93.5
FB94.9

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

Joc Pederson in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · JOC PEDERSON

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

HOU to win

57%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

HOU -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL HOU

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

HOU wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYJoc Pederson at the plate · pitch 1 of 3

event 1 / 77 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✗ MISSED

Texas vs Houston Winner?

65%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

GAME TOTAL

✗ MISSED

TEX Over 4.5 runs

42%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

vulnerable matchup · straight from our 5,000-trial sim · lineup is 7-for-19 (.368) with 2 HR vs. this starter, career

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEEVEN
LINEUP EDGETEX

TEX STARTER

Kumar Rocker

SHAKY
4.6
PROJECTED Ks
92
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Slider · 38% · 41% whiffSinker · 29% · 9% whiffCutter · 15% · 21% whiff

Watch out: Sinker is getting hit hard lately.

HOU STARTER

Peter Lambert

SHAKY
4.6
PROJECTED Ks
94
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 30% · 25% whiffChangeup · 23% · 37% whiffSlider · 15% · 26% whiff

Peter Lambert grades poor (Pitching+ 94) vs Kumar Rocker grades poor (Pitching+ 92)

TEX LINEUP

  1. 1Joc Pederson (L)hit 69% · HR 32%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    69%

    1+ HIT

    31%

    2+ HITS

    32%

    HOME RUN

    49%

    2+ BASES

    38%

    3+ BASES

    33%

    4+ BASES

    41%

    RBI

    19%

    2+ RBIs

    54%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Wyatt Langfordhit 68% · HR 26%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    29%

    2+ HITS

    26%

    HOME RUN

    47%

    2+ BASES

    34%

    3+ BASES

    28%

    4+ BASES

    37%

    RBI

    17%

    2+ RBIs

    48%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Corey Seagerhit 58% · HR 20%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    20%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Brandon Nimmo (L)hit 62% · HR 14%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Evan Carter (L)hit 54% · HR 11%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Ezequiel Duran (R)hit 58% · HR 13%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Alejandro Osuna (L)hit 54% · HR 5%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    24%

    2+ BASES

    11%

    3+ BASES

    6%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Elias Díaz (R)hit 55% · HR 12%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Nicky Lopez (L)hit 53% · HR 5%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    23%

    2+ BASES

    10%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

HOU LINEUP

  1. 1Jeremy Peñahit 63% · HR 15%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Yordan Alvarez (L)hit 68% · HR 31%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    31%

    HOME RUN

    49%

    2+ BASES

    37%

    3+ BASES

    32%

    4+ BASES

    41%

    RBI

    19%

    2+ RBIs

    47%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Isaac Paredes (R)hit 54% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Christian Walker (R)hit 58% · HR 18%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Yainer Diaz (R)hit 58% · HR 15%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Jose Altuve (R)hit 50% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    50%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    19%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    24%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Taylor Trammell (L)hit 50% · HR 10%HOT·THIN›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    50%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    27%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Cam Smith (R)hit 48% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    48%

    1+ HIT

    12%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9LaMonte Wade Jr. (L)hit 46% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    46%

    1+ HIT

    11%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    24%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    19%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

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Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

Swipe the whole board.

One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

TEX HOU

Game Markets

TEX @ HOU · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

HOU to win

58%

1st 5 Innings

HOU F5

48%

Game Total

Over 8.5

46%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

52%

Run Line

HOU -1.5

39%

Team Total

TEX Over 4.5

37%

Team Total

HOU Over 4.5

45%

THE READ

HOU projects to outscore TEX by 0.50 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: TEX 4.01, HOU 4.51
  • Kumar Rocker (TEX) vs Peter Lambert (HOU)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
KR

Kumar Rocker

TEX SP · vs. HOU

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

50%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

30%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

16%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

3%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

69%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

21%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

57%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

42%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.6 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.6 strikeouts
  • 50% to reach 5+ against HOU
PL

Peter Lambert

HOU SP · vs. TEX

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

49%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

29%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

75%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

10%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

50%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

34%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.6 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.6 strikeouts
  • 49% to reach 5+ against TEX
JP

Joc Pederson

TEX · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

32%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

33%

Total Bases

2+ bases

53%

Total Bases

3+ bases

40%

Total Bases

4+ bases

35%

RBIs

1+ RBI

42%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

20%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 32% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Peter Lambert
YA

Yordan Alvarez

HOU · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

31%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

53%

Total Bases

3+ bases

40%

Total Bases

4+ bases

34%

RBIs

1+ RBI

42%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

20%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 31% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Kumar Rocker
WL

Wyatt Langford

TEX · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

26%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

50%

Total Bases

3+ bases

36%

Total Bases

4+ bases

29%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 26% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Peter Lambert
CS

Corey Seager

TEX · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Peter Lambert
BN

Brandon Nimmo

TEX · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 26% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Facing Peter Lambert
CW

Christian Walker

HOU · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Facing Kumar Rocker
JP

Jeremy Peña

HOU · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 25% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Kumar Rocker
ED

Ezequiel Duran

TEX · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 12% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Peter Lambert
YD

Yainer Diaz

HOU · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Kumar Rocker
ED

Elias Díaz

TEX · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 58%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Peter Lambert
EC

Evan Carter

TEX · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 56%.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Peter Lambert
IP

Isaac Paredes

HOU · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 57%.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing Kumar Rocker
AO

Alejandro Osuna

TEX · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

25%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

7%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 60%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Facing Peter Lambert
NL

Nicky Lopez

TEX · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

25%

Total Bases

3+ bases

11%

Total Bases

4+ bases

7%

RBIs

1+ RBI

20%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 60%.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Peter Lambert
JA

Jose Altuve

HOU · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

52%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

20%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 60%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Kumar Rocker
TT

Taylor Trammell

HOU · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

52%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

20%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 60%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Hot streak, thin underlying support
  • Facing Kumar Rocker
CS

Cam Smith

HOU · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

50%

Hits

2+ hits

13%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 50% against 60%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Facing Kumar Rocker
LJ

LaMonte Wade Jr.

HOU · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

48%

Hits

2+ hits

12%

Total Bases

2+ bases

26%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

20%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 48% against 60%.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Kumar Rocker

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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