BETFLYAISIGN IN
ST. LOUISSTL
54-57 · +4 NL CENTRAL · L3 · 2-8 L10
@SAT 3:07 PM ETTOR HOME PARK
52-59 · +5 AL EAST · W3 · 6-4 L10
TORONTOTOR
Weather
—
Home plate ump
Rob Drake K+1.0%
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-2 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Quinn Mathews
LHP · STLPROBABLE
STUFF+—
ERA
3.60
IP
5.0
K/9
5.4
BB/9
5.4
WHIP
1.80
L5 STARTS3.60 ERA · 12.5% K · 12.5% BB
PITCH MIX

Not cataloged

Kevin Gausman
RHP · TORPROBABLE
STUFF+97
ERA
4.38
IP
127.1
K/9
9.0
BB/9
2.5
WHIP
1.29
L5 STARTS5.31 ERA · 22.3% K · 9.9% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
51%
39%
10%
4-Seam FastballSplit-FingerSlider
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS5 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Kevin Gausman · Under 17.5 <18 Outs

early-trouble profile vs a patient lineup

+125 Bovada44% book71% +26pp

Jordan Walker · Over 0.5 1+ RBIs

middle-order + runners-on profile

+195 BetRivers34% book50% +16pp

Alec Burleson · Over 0.5 1+ RBIs

cleanup spot + hot bat = RBI machine

+182 DraftKings35% book48% +12pp

Jordan Walker · Over 0.5 1+ Runs

on-base profile + lineup behind

+120 BetMGM45% book55% +9pp

Jimmy Crooks · Under 0.5 <1 RBIs

middle-order + runners-on profile

-375 BetMGM79% book87% +8pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETBlue Jays 54%

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

STL TOR

Game Markets

STL @ TOR · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

TOR to win

54%

1st 5 Innings

TOR F5

46%

Game Total

Over 8.5

55%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

58%

Run Line

TOR -1.5

38%

Team Total

STL Over 4.5

45%

Team Total

TOR Over 4.5

49%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 9.47 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: STL 4.63, TOR 4.84
  • Matthew Liberatore (STL) vs Max Scherzer (TOR)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
ML

Matthew Liberatore

STL SP · vs. TOR

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

47%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

29%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

59%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

14%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

57%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

43%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.5 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.5 strikeouts
  • 47% to reach 5+ against TOR
MS

Max Scherzer

TOR SP · vs. STL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

13%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

0%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

22%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

7%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

37%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

25%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 2.7 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 2.7 strikeouts
  • 13% to reach 5+ against STL
JW

Jordan Walker

STL · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

25%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

50%

Total Bases

3+ bases

35%

Total Bases

4+ bases

29%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 25% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Facing Max Scherzer
KO

Kazuma Okamoto

TOR · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

24%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

27%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 24% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing Matthew Liberatore
GS

George Springer

TOR · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 16% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Matthew Liberatore
VJ

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

TOR · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 30% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Facing Matthew Liberatore
AB

Alec Burleson

STL · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 20% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Facing Max Scherzer
JW

JJ Wetherholt

STL · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Max Scherzer
LU

Luis Urías

TOR · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 19% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Facing Matthew Liberatore
DS

Davis Schneider

TOR · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 12% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 9
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Matthew Liberatore
EC

Ernie Clement

TOR · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 25% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Facing Matthew Liberatore
AK

Alejandro Kirk

TOR · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 12% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Facing Matthew Liberatore
DV

Daulton Varsho

TOR · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Matthew Liberatore
LN

Lars Nootbaar

STL · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Facing Max Scherzer
IH

Iván Herrera

STL · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Max Scherzer
MS

Myles Straw

TOR · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ RBI at 27% against 29%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Matthew Liberatore
NC

Nathan Church

STL · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

26%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 62%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Max Scherzer
MW

Masyn Winn

STL · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

24%

Total Bases

3+ bases

11%

Total Bases

4+ bases

7%

RBIs

1+ RBI

19%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 62%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Max Scherzer
BJ

Blaze Jordan

STL · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

25%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

20%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 62%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Max Scherzer
JC

Jimmy Crooks

STL · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

49%

Hits

2+ hits

13%

Total Bases

2+ bases

25%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 49% against 62%.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Max Scherzer
— SPLITS THAT MATTER

QUINN MATHEWS SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TOR hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%9.5%OPS-against.734
vs Left-handedK%33.3%OPS-against.666
TOR vs RHP (team)OPS.700K%18.6%

KEVIN GAUSMAN SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how STL hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%26.3%OPS-against.766
vs Left-handedK%21.4%OPS-against.675
STL vs LHP (team)OPS.692K%18.2%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

TOR BATTERS vs QUINN MATHEWS

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

STL BATTERS vs KEVIN GAUSMAN

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
STL 0·TOR 2
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
STL 0·TOR 2
2 played · 17 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
59%TOR
STL 13 · TOR 19 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-01TOR 5-1
2026-07-31TOR 3-1
2025-06-11TOR 5-2
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
STL47¢ · 47%
TOR57¢ · 57%
Total 8.5
Over54¢ · 54%
Under50¢ · 50%
Run line ±1.5
STL -1.5— · —
TOR +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT9→8.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

STL OFFENSE

.260L15 team wOBA
-56 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

TOR OFFENSE

.282L15 team wOBA
-34 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
— ENVIRONMENT
ROGERS CENTRE
106HR
HR factor1.06 · +
Runs factor1.00 · neutral
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

Slight HR boost.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH

Forecast loading — check back within 3 hours of first pitch.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE
DRAKE
Called K rate+1.0% vs avg
Runs per 9—
Games this yr271

K-friendly zone · slight edge to pitcher props.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

BLUE JAYS 54%

Mean score sim 4.6–4.8 · projected total 9.5 runs · pre-lineup estimate — refreshes when lineups post

That's the simulation. The called reads — which markets the engine actually likes at today's prices, with the reasoning — publish to Edge and Sharp members.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

GO EDGE · $10/MO