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AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

SF vs SD

San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres

Saturday, August 1, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the SF @ SD simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

SAN FRANCISCOSF
0·0
SAN DIEGOSD
TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

SF DUGOUTSD DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

League Avg (R) vs HP

FB95.2
CV74.8
FB93.5
FB93.2

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

League Avg in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · LEAGUE AVG

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

SD to win

47%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

SD -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL SD

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

SD wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYLeague Avg at the plate · pitch 1 of 4

event 1 / 75 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✗ MISSED

San Francisco vs San Diego Winner?

57%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGESF
LINEUP EDGESF

SF STARTER

Landen Roupp

GOOD
5.3
PROJECTED Ks
105
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Sinker · 35% · 9% whiffCurveball · 26% · 34% whiffChangeup · 20% · 30% whiff

SD STARTER

Michael King

AVERAGE
4.2
PROJECTED Ks
97
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Changeup · 28% · 30% whiffSinker · 28% · 17% whiffSweeper · 20% · 27% whiff

Michael King grades avg (Pitching+ 97) vs Landen Roupp grades good (Pitching+ 105)

SF LINEUP

  1. 1Luis Arraez (L)hit 69% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    69%

    1+ HIT

    31%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    41%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    47%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Bryce Eldridge (L)hit 64% · HR 19%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    41%

    2+ BASES

    27%

    3+ BASES

    21%

    4+ BASES

    35%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    45%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Heliot Ramos (R)hit 65% · HR 15%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    41%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    35%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Rafael Devers (L)hit 66% · HR 24%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    29%

    2+ HITS

    24%

    HOME RUN

    47%

    2+ BASES

    34%

    3+ BASES

    27%

    4+ BASES

    42%

    RBI

    21%

    2+ RBIs

    44%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Jung Hoo Lee (L)hit 63% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Willy Adames (R)hit 61% · HR 18%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Daniel Susachit 56% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Drew Gilbert (L)hit 54% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    25%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Christian Koss (R)hit 50% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    50%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    24%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

SD LINEUP

  1. 1Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)hit 68% · HR 8%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    44%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Jake Cronenworth (L)hit 62% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    40%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Manny Machado (R)hit 62% · HR 23%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    23%

    HOME RUN

    43%

    2+ BASES

    30%

    3+ BASES

    25%

    4+ BASES

    39%

    RBI

    19%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Ty France (R)hit 64% · HR 19%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    35%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Jackson Merrill (L)hit 60% · HR 13%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Luis Rengifohit 58% · HR 6%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Xander Bogaerts (R)hit 53% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    25%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Freddy Ferminhit 50% · HR 5%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    50%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    22%

    2+ BASES

    10%

    3+ BASES

    6%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    26%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Jase Bowen (R)hit 52% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

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Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

SF SD

Game Markets

SF @ SD · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

SF to win

51%

1st 5 Innings

SD F5

41%

Game Total

Over 8.5

48%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

49%

Run Line

SD -1.5

33%

Team Total

SF Over 4.5

44%

Team Total

SD Over 4.5

40%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 8.67 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: SF 4.46, SD 4.21
  • Landen Roupp (SF) vs Michael King (SD)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
LR

Landen Roupp

SF SP · vs. SD

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

62%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

44%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

29%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

17%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

9%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

75%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

50%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

59%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

46%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.3 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.3 strikeouts
  • 62% to reach 5+ against SD
MK

Michael King

SD SP · vs. SF

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

42%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

23%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

55%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

3%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

48%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

33%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.2 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.2 strikeouts
  • 42% to reach 5+ against SF
RD

Rafael Devers

SF · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

24%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

50%

Total Bases

3+ bases

36%

Total Bases

4+ bases

29%

RBIs

1+ RBI

44%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

21%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 24% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Michael King
MM

Manny Machado

SD · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

23%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

32%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

41%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

20%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 23% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Landen Roupp
TF

Ty France

SD · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Landen Roupp
BE

Bryce Eldridge

SF · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Facing Michael King
WA

Willy Adames

SF · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Facing Michael King
LA

Luis Arraez

SF · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

33%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 33% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Michael King
FJ

Fernando Tatis Jr.

SD · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 31% against 23% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Landen Roupp
HR

Heliot Ramos

SF · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 20% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing Michael King
JM

Jackson Merrill

SD · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 13% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Landen Roupp
JL

Jung Hoo Lee

SF · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Michael King
JC

Jake Cronenworth

SD · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Facing Landen Roupp
LR

Luis Rengifo

SD · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.

  • Batting 6
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Landen Roupp
DS

Daniel Susac

SF · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 63%.

  • Batting 7
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Michael King
DG

Drew Gilbert

SF · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 63%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Michael King
XB

Xander Bogaerts

SD · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 63%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Landen Roupp
JB

Jase Bowen

SD · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 63%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Landen Roupp
CK

Christian Koss

SF · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

25%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 63%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Michael King
FF

Freddy Fermin

SD · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

52%

Hits

2+ hits

13%

Total Bases

2+ bases

23%

Total Bases

3+ bases

11%

Total Bases

4+ bases

7%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 63%.

  • Batting 8
  • Facing Landen Roupp

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.