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AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

PIT vs CIN

Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds

Saturday, August 1, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the PIT @ CIN simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

PITTSBURGHPIT
0·0
CINCINNATICIN
TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

PIT DUGOUTCIN DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

Jake Mangum (L) vs HP

FB93.7
SL85

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

Jake Mangum in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · JAKE MANGUM

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

CIN to win

63%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

CIN -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL CIN

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

CIN wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYJake Mangum at the plate · pitch 1 of 2

event 1 / 87 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✓ CONFIRMED

Pittsburgh vs Cincinnati Winner?

66%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGECIN
LINEUP EDGEPIT

PIT STARTER

Mitch Keller

SHAKY
2.9
PROJECTED Ks
94
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 32% · 17% whiffSinker · 17% · 15% whiffSweeper · 16% · 24% whiff

Watch out: Sinker is getting hit hard lately.

CIN STARTER

Chase Burns

GOOD
7.0
PROJECTED Ks
115
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 57% · 17% whiffSlider · 38% · 51% whiff

Chase Burns grades good (Pitching+ 115) vs Mitch Keller grades poor (Pitching+ 94)

PIT LINEUP

  1. 1Jake Mangum (S)hit 71% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    71%

    1+ HIT

    36%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    44%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    54%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Brandon Lowe (L)hit 74% · HR 24%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    74%

    1+ HIT

    37%

    2+ HITS

    24%

    HOME RUN

    53%

    2+ BASES

    37%

    3+ BASES

    29%

    4+ BASES

    43%

    RBI

    20%

    2+ RBIs

    56%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Bryan Reynolds (S)hit 74% · HR 23%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    74%

    1+ HIT

    37%

    2+ HITS

    23%

    HOME RUN

    53%

    2+ BASES

    38%

    3+ BASES

    29%

    4+ BASES

    44%

    RBI

    20%

    2+ RBIs

    53%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Esmerlyn Valdez (R)hit 72% · HR 31%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    72%

    1+ HIT

    35%

    2+ HITS

    31%

    HOME RUN

    53%

    2+ BASES

    40%

    3+ BASES

    34%

    4+ BASES

    49%

    RBI

    27%

    2+ RBIs

    52%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Nick Gonzales (R)hit 69% · HR 9%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    69%

    1+ HIT

    32%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Marcell Ozuna (R)hit 64% · HR 16%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    40%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Jared Triolo (R)hit 63% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Rafael Flores Jr.hit 63% · HR 15%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Henry Davis (R)hit 60% · HR 14%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

CIN LINEUP

  1. 1Elly De La Cruz (S)hit 73% · HR 22%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    73%

    1+ HIT

    36%

    2+ HITS

    22%

    HOME RUN

    52%

    2+ BASES

    37%

    3+ BASES

    28%

    4+ BASES

    37%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    54%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Sal Stewart (R)hit 69% · HR 24%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    69%

    1+ HIT

    31%

    2+ HITS

    24%

    HOME RUN

    48%

    2+ BASES

    34%

    3+ BASES

    26%

    4+ BASES

    39%

    RBI

    18%

    2+ RBIs

    49%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3JJ Bleday (L)hit 66% · HR 24%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    24%

    HOME RUN

    45%

    2+ BASES

    32%

    3+ BASES

    26%

    4+ BASES

    40%

    RBI

    18%

    2+ RBIs

    46%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Nathaniel Lowe (L)hit 65% · HR 18%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    27%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Noelvi Marte (R)hit 59% · HR 10%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Eugenio Suárez (R)hit 60% · HR 16%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Jose Trevino (R)hit 58% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8TJ Friedl (L)hit 51% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    23%

    2+ BASES

    11%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    18%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Matt McLain (R)hit 53% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

PIT CIN

Game Markets

PIT @ CIN · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

CIN to win

64%

1st 5 Innings

CIN F5

57%

Game Total

Over 8.5

60%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

58%

Run Line

CIN -1.5

48%

Team Total

PIT Over 4.5

42%

Team Total

CIN Over 4.5

59%

THE READ

CIN projects to outscore PIT by 1.30 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: PIT 4.39, CIN 5.69
  • Mitch Keller (PIT) vs Chase Burns (CIN)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
MK

Mitch Keller

PIT SP · vs. CIN

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

17%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

46%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

16%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

63%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

50%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 2.9 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 2.9 strikeouts
  • 17% to reach 5+ against CIN
CB

Chase Burns

CIN SP · vs. PIT

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

89%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

76%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

58%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

40%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

23%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

84%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

15%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

48%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

33%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.0 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 7.0 strikeouts
  • 89% to reach 5+ against PIT
EV

Esmerlyn Valdez

PIT · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

31%

Hits

1+ hits

75%

Hits

2+ hits

37%

Total Bases

2+ bases

57%

Total Bases

3+ bases

43%

Total Bases

4+ bases

36%

RBIs

1+ RBI

51%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

27%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 31% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Chase Burns
BL

Brandon Lowe

PIT · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

24%

Hits

1+ hits

77%

Hits

2+ hits

39%

Total Bases

2+ bases

57%

Total Bases

3+ bases

40%

Total Bases

4+ bases

31%

RBIs

1+ RBI

44%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

20%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 31% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Chase Burns
BR

Bryan Reynolds

PIT · bats S · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

23%

Hits

1+ hits

77%

Hits

2+ hits

39%

Total Bases

2+ bases

57%

Total Bases

3+ bases

40%

Total Bases

4+ bases

31%

RBIs

1+ RBI

45%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

21%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 31% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats S
  • Facing Chase Burns
JB

JJ Bleday

CIN · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

24%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

34%

Total Bases

4+ bases

28%

RBIs

1+ RBI

41%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 24% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Facing Mitch Keller
SS

Sal Stewart

CIN · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

24%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

51%

Total Bases

3+ bases

36%

Total Bases

4+ bases

28%

RBIs

1+ RBI

41%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 24% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Mitch Keller
EC

Elly De La Cruz

CIN · bats S · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

76%

Hits

2+ hits

38%

Total Bases

2+ bases

56%

Total Bases

3+ bases

39%

Total Bases

4+ bases

30%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 30% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats S
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Mitch Keller
JM

Jake Mangum

PIT · bats S · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

74%

Hits

2+ hits

38%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 38% against 28% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats S
  • Facing Chase Burns
NG

Nick Gonzales

PIT · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

34%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 34% against 28% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Chase Burns
NL

Nathaniel Lowe

CIN · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 16% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Facing Mitch Keller
MO

Marcell Ozuna

PIT · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Chase Burns
RJ

Rafael Flores Jr.

PIT · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.

  • Batting 8
  • Facing Chase Burns
ES

Eugenio Suárez

CIN · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Facing Mitch Keller
JT

Jared Triolo

PIT · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Facing Chase Burns
HD

Henry Davis

PIT · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Facing Chase Burns
NM

Noelvi Marte

CIN · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 61% against 68%.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Mitch Keller
JT

Jose Trevino

CIN · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 68%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Facing Mitch Keller
MM

Matt McLain

CIN · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 68%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Mitch Keller
TF

TJ Friedl

CIN · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

24%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

18%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

5%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 68%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Mitch Keller

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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