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AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

PHI vs BAL

Philadelphia Phillies at Baltimore Orioles

Saturday, August 1, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the PHI @ BAL simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

PHILADELPHIAPHI
0·0
BALTIMOREBAL
TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

PHI DUGOUTBAL DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

Trea Turner (R) vs HP

FB95
CV77.5

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

Trea Turner in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · TREA TURNER

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

BAL to win

37%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

BAL -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL BAL

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

BAL wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYTrea Turner at the plate · pitch 1 of 2

event 1 / 75 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✓ CONFIRMED

Philadelphia vs Baltimore Winner?

68%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

GAME TOTAL

✓ CONFIRMED

PHI Over 4.5 runs

43%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

straight from our 5,000-trial sim · lineup is 5-for-16 (.312) with 1 HR vs. this starter, career · 90°F, 13mph wind

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEPHI
LINEUP EDGEPHI

PHI STARTER

Zack Wheeler

GOOD
7.8
PROJECTED Ks
113
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 36% · 30% whiffSplit-Finger · 16% · 49% whiffSinker · 15% · 9% whiff

BAL STARTER

Kyle Bradish

AVERAGE
5.3
PROJECTED Ks
103
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Sinker · 34% · 10% whiffSlider · 26% · 34% whiffCurveball · 22% · 41% whiff

Kyle Bradish grades avg (Pitching+ 103) vs Zack Wheeler grades good (Pitching+ 113)

PHI LINEUP

  1. 1Trea Turner (R)hit 67% · HR 18%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    29%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    43%

    2+ BASES

    28%

    3+ BASES

    21%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    49%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Kyle Schwarber (L)hit 69% · HR 35%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    69%

    1+ HIT

    32%

    2+ HITS

    35%

    HOME RUN

    51%

    2+ BASES

    40%

    3+ BASES

    35%

    4+ BASES

    44%

    RBI

    23%

    2+ RBIs

    55%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Bryce Harper (L)hit 68% · HR 27%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    27%

    HOME RUN

    49%

    2+ BASES

    35%

    3+ BASES

    29%

    4+ BASES

    41%

    RBI

    19%

    2+ RBIs

    48%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Alec Bohm (R)hit 60% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Brandon Marsh (L)hit 67% · HR 19%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    43%

    2+ BASES

    29%

    3+ BASES

    22%

    4+ BASES

    35%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6J.T. Realmuto (R)hit 60% · HR 13%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Bryson Stott (L)hit 57% · HR 8%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Justin Crawford (L)hit 58% · HR 5%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Bryan De La Cruzhit 59% · HR 15%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

BAL LINEUP

  1. 1Coby Mayo (R)hit 62% · HR 24%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    24%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    30%

    3+ BASES

    25%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Taylor Ward (R)hit 58% · HR 11%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Gunnar Henderson (L)hit 57% · HR 15%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Pete Alonso (R)hit 61% · HR 18%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Tyler O'Neill (R)hit 55% · HR 16%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Christian Encarnacion-Strandhit 52% · HR 11%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    25%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Leody Taveras (S)hit 48% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    48%

    1+ HIT

    12%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    23%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    16%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    24%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Jackson Holliday (L)hit 50% · HR 8%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    50%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    23%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    18%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    25%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Jake Rogers (R)hit 44% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    44%

    1+ HIT

    10%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    22%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    19%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    25%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

PHI BAL

Game Markets

PHI @ BAL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

PHI to win

59%

1st 5 Innings

BAL F5

30%

Game Total

Over 8.5

38%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

39%

Run Line

BAL -1.5

23%

Team Total

PHI Over 4.5

43%

Team Total

BAL Over 4.5

27%

THE READ

PHI projects to outscore BAL by 1.14 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: PHI 4.40, BAL 3.26
  • Zack Wheeler (PHI) vs Kyle Bradish (BAL)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
ZW

Zack Wheeler

PHI SP · vs. BAL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

88%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

78%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

67%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

54%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

39%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

77%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

54%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

48%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

35%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.8 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 7.8 strikeouts
  • 88% to reach 5+ against BAL
KB

Kyle Bradish

BAL SP · vs. PHI

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

63%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

44%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

27%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

16%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

8%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

83%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

58%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

62%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

49%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.3 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.3 strikeouts
  • 63% to reach 5+ against PHI
KS

Kyle Schwarber

PHI · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

35%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

33%

Total Bases

2+ bases

55%

Total Bases

3+ bases

43%

Total Bases

4+ bases

38%

RBIs

1+ RBI

46%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

24%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 35% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Facing Kyle Bradish
BH

Bryce Harper

PHI · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

27%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

52%

Total Bases

3+ bases

38%

Total Bases

4+ bases

31%

RBIs

1+ RBI

43%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 27% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Kyle Bradish
CM

Coby Mayo

BAL · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

24%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

32%

Total Bases

4+ bases

27%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 24% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Zack Wheeler
TT

Trea Turner

PHI · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 31% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Kyle Bradish
BM

Brandon Marsh

PHI · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 15% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Kyle Bradish
PA

Pete Alonso

BAL · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Zack Wheeler
BC

Bryan De La Cruz

PHI · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 13% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 9
  • Facing Kyle Bradish
TO

Tyler O'Neill

BAL · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 57%.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Zack Wheeler
AB

Alec Bohm

PHI · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Facing Kyle Bradish
JR

J.T. Realmuto

PHI · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Facing Kyle Bradish
TW

Taylor Ward

BAL · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Zack Wheeler
JC

Justin Crawford

PHI · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Facing Kyle Bradish
GH

Gunnar Henderson

BAL · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Zack Wheeler
BS

Bryson Stott

PHI · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Kyle Bradish
CE

Christian Encarnacion-Strand

BAL · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 61%.

  • Batting 6
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Zack Wheeler
JH

Jackson Holliday

BAL · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

52%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

25%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

19%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 61%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Zack Wheeler
LT

Leody Taveras

BAL · bats S · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

50%

Hits

2+ hits

13%

Total Bases

2+ bases

24%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

17%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

5%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 50% against 61%.

  • Batting 7 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Zack Wheeler
JR

Jake Rogers

BAL · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

46%

Hits

2+ hits

11%

Total Bases

2+ bases

23%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

19%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 46% against 61%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Zack Wheeler

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.