AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDNYY vs CHC
New York Yankees at Chicago Cubs
Saturday, August 1, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the NYY @ CHC simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
Trent Grisham (L) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
Trent Grisham in this spot
BATTER PROPS · TRENT GRISHAM
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
CHC to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
CHC -1.5
TEAM TOTAL CHC
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
CHC wins F5
event 1 / 76 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN
Who has the advantage tonight.
The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.
NYY STARTER
Gerrit Cole
GOOD- 5.3
- PROJECTED Ks
- 106
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
CHC STARTER
Colin Rea
SHAKY- 3.8
- PROJECTED Ks
- 94
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
Colin Rea grades poor (Pitching+ 94) vs Gerrit Cole grades good (Pitching+ 106)
NYY LINEUP
1Max Schuemann (R)hit 66% · HR 13%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
66%
1+ HIT
27%
2+ HITS
13%
HOME RUN
38%
2+ BASES
23%
3+ BASES
16%
4+ BASES
29%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
48%
SCORES A RUN
2Paul Goldschmidt (R)hit 71% · HR 24%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
71%
1+ HIT
33%
2+ HITS
24%
HOME RUN
49%
2+ BASES
34%
3+ BASES
27%
4+ BASES
40%
RBI
18%
2+ RBIs
50%
SCORES A RUN
3Amed Rosario (R)hit 65% · HR 17%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
65%
1+ HIT
28%
2+ HITS
17%
HOME RUN
40%
2+ BASES
25%
3+ BASES
19%
4+ BASES
34%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
41%
SCORES A RUN
4Jasson Domínguez (S)hit 65% · HR 13%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
65%
1+ HIT
27%
2+ HITS
13%
HOME RUN
39%
2+ BASES
23%
3+ BASES
16%
4+ BASES
33%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
40%
SCORES A RUN
5Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)hit 68% · HR 19%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
68%
1+ HIT
29%
2+ HITS
19%
HOME RUN
45%
2+ BASES
29%
3+ BASES
22%
4+ BASES
36%
RBI
16%
2+ RBIs
46%
SCORES A RUN
6Anthony Volpe (R)hit 64% · HR 10%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
64%
1+ HIT
24%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
36%
2+ BASES
20%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
31%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
41%
SCORES A RUN
7Spencer Joneshit 65% · HR 15%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
65%
1+ HIT
25%
2+ HITS
15%
HOME RUN
39%
2+ BASES
24%
3+ BASES
18%
4+ BASES
36%
RBI
15%
2+ RBIs
39%
SCORES A RUN
8Ali Sánchez (R)hit 60% · HR 11%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
60%
1+ HIT
23%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
34%
2+ BASES
19%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
31%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
35%
SCORES A RUN
9José Caballero (R)hit 59% · HR 12%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
59%
1+ HIT
21%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
31%
2+ BASES
18%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
29%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
38%
SCORES A RUN
CHC LINEUP
1Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)hit 69% · HR 20%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
69%
1+ HIT
30%
2+ HITS
20%
HOME RUN
47%
2+ BASES
32%
3+ BASES
24%
4+ BASES
34%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
49%
SCORES A RUN
2Seiya Suzuki (R)hit 65% · HR 15%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
65%
1+ HIT
28%
2+ HITS
15%
HOME RUN
42%
2+ BASES
27%
3+ BASES
19%
4+ BASES
33%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
39%
SCORES A RUN
3Alex Bregman (R)hit 58% · HR 7%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
58%
1+ HIT
21%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
31%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
26%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
29%
SCORES A RUN
4Carson Kelly (R)hit 61% · HR 8%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
61%
1+ HIT
21%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
32%
2+ BASES
17%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
26%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
31%
SCORES A RUN
5Michael Busch (L)hit 60% · HR 11%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
60%
1+ HIT
21%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
35%
2+ BASES
20%
3+ BASES
14%
4+ BASES
26%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
34%
SCORES A RUN
6Nico Hoerner (R)hit 58% · HR 4%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
58%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
4%
HOME RUN
28%
2+ BASES
13%
3+ BASES
7%
4+ BASES
21%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
30%
SCORES A RUN
7Ian Happ (S)hit 57% · HR 15%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
57%
1+ HIT
18%
2+ HITS
15%
HOME RUN
36%
2+ BASES
22%
3+ BASES
16%
4+ BASES
31%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
35%
SCORES A RUN
8Dansby Swanson (R)hit 53% · HR 11%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
53%
1+ HIT
16%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
29%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
25%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
33%
SCORES A RUN
9James Triantoshit 53% · HR 9%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
53%
1+ HIT
16%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
28%
2+ BASES
15%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
25%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
32%
SCORES A RUN
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169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
NYY @ CHC · full-game reads
Moneyline
NYY to win
66%
1st 5 Innings
CHC F5
31%
Game Total
Over 8.5
55%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
55%
Run Line
CHC -1.5
20%
Team Total
NYY Over 4.5
58%
Team Total
CHC Over 4.5
34%
THE READ
NYY projects to outscore CHC by 1.92 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: NYY 5.67, CHC 3.75
- Gerrit Cole (NYY) vs Colin Rea (CHC)
- Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
Gerrit Cole
NYY SP · vs. CHC
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
64%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
45%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
27%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
14%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
7%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
94%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
52%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
59%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
44%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.3 Ks.
- Sim projects 5.3 strikeouts
- 64% to reach 5+ against CHC
Colin Rea
CHC SP · vs. NYY
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
33%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
17%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
7%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
100%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
90%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
82%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
71%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.8 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 3.8 strikeouts
- 33% to reach 5+ against NYY
Paul Goldschmidt
NYY · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
24%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
35%
Total Bases
2+ bases
52%
Total Bases
3+ bases
37%
Total Bases
4+ bases
29%
RBIs
1+ RBI
41%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 24% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Colin Rea
Pete Crow-Armstrong
CHC · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
32%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
34%
Total Bases
4+ bases
26%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 26% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Gerrit Cole
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
NYY · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Facing Colin Rea
Spencer Jones
NYY · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 16% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 7
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Colin Rea
Amed Rosario
NYY · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 17% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Facing Colin Rea
Seiya Suzuki
CHC · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 21% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Gerrit Cole
Ian Happ
CHC · bats S · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 15% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 7 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Gerrit Cole
Max Schuemann
NYY · bats R · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 28% against 25% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Colin Rea
Jasson Domínguez
NYY · bats S · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 28% against 25% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Colin Rea
Anthony Volpe
NYY · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Colin Rea
Ali Sánchez
NYY · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
36%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Colin Rea
Carson Kelly
CHC · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Facing Gerrit Cole
Michael Busch
CHC · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Facing Gerrit Cole
José Caballero
NYY · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Colin Rea
Alex Bregman
CHC · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
61%
Hits
2+ hits
22%
Total Bases
2+ bases
33%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 61% against 65%.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Gerrit Cole
Nico Hoerner
CHC · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
4%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
30%
Total Bases
3+ bases
13%
Total Bases
4+ bases
7%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 65%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Facing Gerrit Cole
James Triantos
CHC · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
56%
Hits
2+ hits
17%
Total Bases
2+ bases
30%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 65%.
- Batting 9
- Facing Gerrit Cole
Dansby Swanson
CHC · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
55%
Hits
2+ hits
17%
Total Bases
2+ bases
31%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 65%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Facing Gerrit Cole
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
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