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AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

MIN vs SEA

Minnesota Twins at Seattle Mariners

Saturday, August 1, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the MIN @ SEA simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

MINNESOTAMIN
0·0
SEATTLESEA
TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

MIN DUGOUTSEA DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

League Avg (R) vs HP

SL85.7
CH85.3

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

League Avg in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · LEAGUE AVG

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

SEA to win

51%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

SEA -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL SEA

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

SEA wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYLeague Avg at the plate · pitch 1 of 2

event 1 / 74 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✗ MISSED

Minnesota vs Seattle Winner?

53%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGESEA
LINEUP EDGESEA

MIN STARTER

Taj Bradley

AVERAGE
6.4
PROJECTED Ks
101
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 47% · 15% whiffCutter · 24% · 38% whiffSplit-Finger · 20% · 37% whiff

SEA STARTER

George Kirby

GOOD
4.8
PROJECTED Ks
112
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Sweeper · 30% · 27% whiff4-Seam Fastball · 29% · 23% whiffSinker · 21% · 12% whiff

George Kirby grades good (Pitching+ 112) vs Taj Bradley grades avg (Pitching+ 101)

MIN LINEUP

  1. 1Trevor Larnach (L)hit 62% · HR 11%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Ryan Jeffershit 58% · HR 15%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Kody Clemens (L)hit 61% · HR 20%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    20%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    28%

    3+ BASES

    23%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Royce Lewis (R)hit 52% · HR 13%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Brooks Lee (S)hit 54% · HR 12%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    27%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Luke Keaschall (R)hit 55% · HR 7%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    26%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Victor Caratini (S)hit 49% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    49%

    1+ HIT

    12%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    22%

    2+ BASES

    11%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    21%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Ryan Kreidler (R)hit 49% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    49%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    26%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Austin Martin (R)hit 46% · HR 5%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    46%

    1+ HIT

    11%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    19%

    2+ BASES

    9%

    3+ BASES

    5%

    4+ BASES

    16%

    RBI

    4%

    2+ RBIs

    24%

    SCORES A RUN

SEA LINEUP

  1. 1Cole Young (L)hit 60% · HR 10%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Randy Arozarena (R)hit 61% · HR 13%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Dominic Canzone (L)hit 61% · HR 22%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    22%

    HOME RUN

    41%

    2+ BASES

    28%

    3+ BASES

    23%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Julio Rodríguezhit 58% · HR 18%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Cal Raleigh (S)hit 52% · HR 13%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Josh Naylor (L)hit 55% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Mitch Garver (R)hit 51% · HR 10%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    27%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Weston Wilson (R)hit 51% · HR 11%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Colt Emerson (L)hit 46% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    46%

    1+ HIT

    11%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    22%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    26%

    SCORES A RUN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

MIN SEA

Game Markets

MIN @ SEA · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

MIN to win

49%

1st 5 Innings

SEA F5

42%

Game Total

Over 8.5

35%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

40%

Run Line

SEA -1.5

33%

Team Total

MIN Over 4.5

34%

Team Total

SEA Over 4.5

33%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 7.41 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: MIN 3.79, SEA 3.62
  • Taj Bradley (MIN) vs George Kirby (SEA)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
TB

Taj Bradley

MIN SP · vs. SEA

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

80%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

65%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

47%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

30%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

18%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

84%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

41%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

46%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

33%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.4 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 6.4 strikeouts
  • 80% to reach 5+ against SEA
GK

George Kirby

SEA SP · vs. MIN

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

53%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

35%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

21%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

5%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

89%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

66%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

64%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

50%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.8 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.8 strikeouts
  • 53% to reach 5+ against MIN
DC

Dominic Canzone

SEA · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Taj Bradley
KC

Kody Clemens

MIN · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 24% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Facing George Kirby
JR

Julio Rodríguez

SEA · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 14% against 9% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4
  • Facing Taj Bradley
TL

Trevor Larnach

MIN · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 25% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing George Kirby
RJ

Ryan Jeffers

MIN · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 15% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing George Kirby
RA

Randy Arozarena

SEA · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 23% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Taj Bradley
CY

Cole Young

SEA · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 21% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Taj Bradley
CR

Cal Raleigh

SEA · bats S · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 10% against 9% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Taj Bradley
RL

Royce Lewis

MIN · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 13% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Facing George Kirby
LK

Luke Keaschall

MIN · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 58%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing George Kirby
BL

Brooks Lee

MIN · bats S · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 56%.

  • Batting 5 · bats S
  • Facing George Kirby
JN

Josh Naylor

SEA · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 58%.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Taj Bradley
WW

Weston Wilson

SEA · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 53%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Taj Bradley
MG

Mitch Garver

SEA · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 54%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Taj Bradley
RK

Ryan Kreidler

MIN · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

52%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 57%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing George Kirby
VC

Victor Caratini

MIN · bats S · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

51%

Hits

2+ hits

13%

Total Bases

2+ bases

23%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

20%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 51% against 57%.

  • Batting 7 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing George Kirby
AM

Austin Martin

MIN · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

48%

Hits

2+ hits

11%

Total Bases

2+ bases

21%

Total Bases

3+ bases

9%

Total Bases

4+ bases

6%

RBIs

1+ RBI

17%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

4%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 48% against 57%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing George Kirby
CE

Colt Emerson

SEA · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

48%

Hits

2+ hits

11%

Total Bases

2+ bases

24%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 48% against 57%.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Taj Bradley

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

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