BETFLYAISIGN IN

AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

MIL vs LAA

Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Angels

Saturday, August 1, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the MIL @ LAA simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

MILWAUKEEMIL
0·0
LOS ANGELESLAA
TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

MIL DUGOUTLAA DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

League Avg (R) vs HP

FB93.3
FB95.7
FB94.4
CV79.7
FB94.9

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

League Avg in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · LEAGUE AVG

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

LAA to win

34%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

LAA -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL LAA

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

LAA wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYLeague Avg at the plate · pitch 1 of 5

event 1 / 75 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✗ MISSED

Milwaukee vs Los Angeles A Winner?

57%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEMIL
LINEUP EDGEMIL

MIL STARTER

Jacob Misiorowski

ELITE
8.9
PROJECTED Ks
130
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 64% · 43% whiffCutter · 14% · 21% whiffCurveball · 11% · 47% whiff

LAA STARTER

Walbert Ureña

GOOD
5.3
PROJECTED Ks
105
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Changeup · 32% · 37% whiffSinker · 31% · 20% whiff4-Seam Fastball · 22% · 20% whiff

Walbert Ureña grades good (Pitching+ 105) vs Jacob Misiorowski grades elite (Pitching+ 130)

MIL LINEUP

  1. 1Jackson Chourio (R)hit 74% · HR 21%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    74%

    1+ HIT

    37%

    2+ HITS

    21%

    HOME RUN

    51%

    2+ BASES

    35%

    3+ BASES

    26%

    4+ BASES

    39%

    RBI

    17%

    2+ RBIs

    52%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Brice Turang (L)hit 67% · HR 12%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    31%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    44%

    2+ BASES

    27%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    47%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3William Contreras (R)hit 68% · HR 12%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    31%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    41%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    35%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    43%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Christian Yelich (L)hit 66% · HR 13%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    47%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Andrew Vaughn (R)hit 70% · HR 16%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    70%

    1+ HIT

    33%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    49%

    2+ BASES

    32%

    3+ BASES

    23%

    4+ BASES

    40%

    RBI

    18%

    2+ RBIs

    49%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Jake Bauers (L)hit 69% · HR 22%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    69%

    1+ HIT

    31%

    2+ HITS

    22%

    HOME RUN

    48%

    2+ BASES

    33%

    3+ BASES

    26%

    4+ BASES

    42%

    RBI

    20%

    2+ RBIs

    48%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Garrett Mitchell (L)hit 68% · HR 12%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    29%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    44%

    2+ BASES

    27%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    43%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Cooper Pratt (R)hit 63% · HR 9%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Joey Ortiz (R)hit 58% · HR 8%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

LAA LINEUP

  1. 1Zach Neto (R)hit 63% · HR 18%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    45%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Mike Trouthit 65% · HR 23%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    23%

    HOME RUN

    44%

    2+ BASES

    31%

    3+ BASES

    25%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    43%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Nolan Schanuel (L)hit 62% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Jorge Soler (R)hit 57% · HR 14%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Vaughn Grissom (R)hit 61% · HR 11%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Jo Adell (R)hit 59% · HR 14%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Travis d'Arnaudhit 56% · HR 12%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Denzer Guzman (R)hit 53% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Jose Siri (R)hit 57% · HR 14%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

Every bat, graded by the sim.

Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

UPGRADE TO EDGE — $10/mo

III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

Swipe the whole board.

One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

MIL LAA

Game Markets

MIL @ LAA · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

MIL to win

66%

1st 5 Innings

LAA F5

25%

Game Total

Over 8.5

35%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

33%

Run Line

LAA -1.5

19%

Team Total

MIL Over 4.5

46%

Team Total

LAA Over 4.5

20%

THE READ

MIL projects to outscore LAA by 1.85 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: MIL 4.60, LAA 2.75
  • Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) vs Walbert Ureña (LAA)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
JM

Jacob Misiorowski

MIL SP · vs. LAA

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

96%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

91%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

83%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

70%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

55%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

69%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

31%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

25%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

15%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 8.9 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 8.9 strikeouts
  • 96% to reach 5+ against LAA
WU

Walbert Ureña

LAA SP · vs. MIL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

62%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

44%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

27%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

7%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

65%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

22%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

50%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

36%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.3 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.3 strikeouts
  • 62% to reach 5+ against MIL
MT

Mike Trout

LAA · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

23%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

27%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 23% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2
  • Facing Jacob Misiorowski
JB

Jake Bauers

MIL · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

51%

Total Bases

3+ bases

35%

Total Bases

4+ bases

27%

RBIs

1+ RBI

43%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

21%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Walbert Ureña
JC

Jackson Chourio

MIL · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

77%

Hits

2+ hits

39%

Total Bases

2+ bases

54%

Total Bases

3+ bases

37%

Total Bases

4+ bases

28%

RBIs

1+ RBI

41%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 28% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Facing Walbert Ureña
AV

Andrew Vaughn

MIL · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

74%

Hits

2+ hits

35%

Total Bases

2+ bases

52%

Total Bases

3+ bases

34%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

41%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 19% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Facing Walbert Ureña
ZN

Zach Neto

LAA · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Facing Jacob Misiorowski
BT

Brice Turang

MIL · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 32% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Walbert Ureña
WC

William Contreras

MIL · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 32% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Walbert Ureña
GM

Garrett Mitchell

MIL · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 15% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Walbert Ureña
CY

Christian Yelich

MIL · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 15% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Facing Walbert Ureña
CP

Cooper Pratt

MIL · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Walbert Ureña
JS

Jose Siri

LAA · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Jacob Misiorowski
JS

Jorge Soler

LAA · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Jacob Misiorowski
JA

Jo Adell

LAA · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Facing Jacob Misiorowski
NS

Nolan Schanuel

LAA · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Facing Jacob Misiorowski
VG

Vaughn Grissom

LAA · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Jacob Misiorowski
JO

Joey Ortiz

MIL · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Walbert Ureña
TD

Travis d'Arnaud

LAA · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 66%.

  • Batting 7
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Jacob Misiorowski
DG

Denzer Guzman

LAA · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 66%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Jacob Misiorowski

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.