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AI MODEL READ

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MIA vs NYM

Miami Marlins at New York Mets

Saturday, August 1, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the MIA @ NYM simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

MIAMIMIA
0·0
NEW YORKNYM
TOP 11-00 OUT

FIELD

MIA DUGOUTNYM DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

MIA Leadoff (R) vs HP

FB94.4
FB93.9
CT86.1
FB94.7
FB95

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

MIA Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · MIA LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

NYM to win

43%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

NYM -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL NYM

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

NYM wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYMIA Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 5

event 1 / 19 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✓ CONFIRMED

Miami vs New York M Winner?

57%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEEVEN
LINEUP EDGEMIA

MIA STARTER

Tyler Phillips

SHAKY
4.2
PROJECTED Ks
95
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Sinker · 25% · 7% whiffSweeper · 24% · 36% whiffSplit-Finger · 23% · 29% whiff

Watch out: Sinker is getting hit hard lately.

NYM STARTER

Zac Thornton

SHAKY
3.3
PROJECTED Ks
92
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 27% · 16% whiffCutter · 26% · 20% whiffSweeper · 16% · 28% whiff

Watch out: Slider is getting hit hard lately.

Zac Thornton grades poor (Pitching+ 92) vs Tyler Phillips grades poor (Pitching+ 95)

MIA LINEUP

  1. 1Otto Lopez (R)hit 77% · HR 13%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    77%

    1+ HIT

    42%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    53%

    2+ BASES

    34%

    3+ BASES

    23%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    52%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Heriberto Hernández (R)hit 70% · HR 27%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    70%

    1+ HIT

    33%

    2+ HITS

    27%

    HOME RUN

    49%

    2+ BASES

    36%

    3+ BASES

    29%

    4+ BASES

    44%

    RBI

    21%

    2+ RBIs

    52%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Liam Hicks (L)hit 68% · HR 16%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    41%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    40%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Xavier Edwards (S)hit 68% · HR 10%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    43%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Leo Jiménez (R)hit 63% · HR 11%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Kyle Stowers (L)hit 66% · HR 20%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    20%

    HOME RUN

    43%

    2+ BASES

    29%

    3+ BASES

    23%

    4+ BASES

    37%

    RBI

    17%

    2+ RBIs

    45%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Javier Sanoja (R)hit 66% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    43%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Esteury Ruiz (R)hit 66% · HR 16%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    43%

    2+ BASES

    28%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    35%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    49%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Griffin Conine (L)hit 69% · HR 28%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    69%

    1+ HIT

    31%

    2+ HITS

    28%

    HOME RUN

    49%

    2+ BASES

    36%

    3+ BASES

    30%

    4+ BASES

    45%

    RBI

    23%

    2+ RBIs

    50%

    SCORES A RUN

NYM LINEUP

  1. 1A.J. Ewing (L)hit 65% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    45%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Francisco Lindor (S)hit 68% · HR 20%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    29%

    2+ HITS

    20%

    HOME RUN

    44%

    2+ BASES

    30%

    3+ BASES

    23%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    45%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Bo Bichette (R)hit 62% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Carson Benge (L)hit 64% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Jared Young (L)hit 63% · HR 16%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Marcus Semienhit 56% · HR 12%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Brett Baty (L)hit 58% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Tyrone Taylor (R)hit 55% · HR 14%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Luis Torrens (R)hit 53% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

MIA NYM

Game Markets

MIA @ NYM · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

MIA to win

63%

1st 5 Innings

NYM F5

33%

Game Total

Over 8.5

60%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

61%

Run Line

NYM -1.5

24%

Team Total

MIA Over 4.5

60%

Team Total

NYM Over 4.5

40%

THE READ

MIA projects to outscore NYM by 1.62 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: MIA 5.81, NYM 4.19
  • Tyler Phillips (MIA) vs Zac Thornton (NYM)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
TP

Tyler Phillips

MIA SP · vs. NYM

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

42%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

24%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

12%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

89%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

38%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

61%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

45%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.2 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.2 strikeouts
  • 42% to reach 5+ against NYM
ZT

Zac Thornton

NYM SP · vs. MIA

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

22%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

95%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

64%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

79%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

68%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.3 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.3 strikeouts
  • 22% to reach 5+ against MIA
GC

Griffin Conine

MIA · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

28%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

33%

Total Bases

2+ bases

52%

Total Bases

3+ bases

38%

Total Bases

4+ bases

32%

RBIs

1+ RBI

47%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

24%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 28% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Zac Thornton
HH

Heriberto Hernández

MIA · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

27%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

35%

Total Bases

2+ bases

52%

Total Bases

3+ bases

38%

Total Bases

4+ bases

31%

RBIs

1+ RBI

45%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

21%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 27% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Zac Thornton
OL

Otto Lopez

MIA · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

81%

Hits

2+ hits

44%

Total Bases

2+ bases

56%

Total Bases

3+ bases

36%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 44% against 28% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Facing Zac Thornton
FL

Francisco Lindor

NYM · bats S · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

32%

Total Bases

4+ bases

25%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats S
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Tyler Phillips
KS

Kyle Stowers

MIA · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Zac Thornton
ER

Esteury Ruiz

MIA · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 16% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Facing Zac Thornton
LH

Liam Hicks

MIA · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 16% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Facing Zac Thornton
XE

Xavier Edwards

MIA · bats S · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 32% against 28% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Zac Thornton
JY

Jared Young

NYM · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Facing Tyler Phillips
AE

A.J. Ewing

NYM · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Tyler Phillips
JS

Javier Sanoja

MIA · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 69%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Facing Zac Thornton
LJ

Leo Jiménez

MIA · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Zac Thornton
CB

Carson Benge

NYM · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Facing Tyler Phillips
BB

Bo Bichette

NYM · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Tyler Phillips
TT

Tyrone Taylor

NYM · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 58%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Tyler Phillips
BB

Brett Baty

NYM · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 67%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Facing Tyler Phillips
MS

Marcus Semien

NYM · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 67%.

  • Batting 6
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Tyler Phillips
LT

Luis Torrens

NYM · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 67%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Tyler Phillips

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.