AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDKC vs COL
Kansas City Royals at Colorado Rockies
Saturday, August 1, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the KC @ COL simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
Carter Jensen (L) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
Carter Jensen in this spot
BATTER PROPS · CARTER JENSEN
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
COL to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
COL -1.5
TEAM TOTAL COL
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
COL wins F5
event 1 / 89 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✗ MISSEDKansas City vs Colorado Winner?
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN
Who has the advantage tonight.
The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.
KC STARTER
Seth Lugo
SHAKY- 3.3
- PROJECTED Ks
- 94
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
Watch out: Sinker is getting hit hard lately.
COL STARTER
Kyle Freeland
SHAKY- 3.6
- PROJECTED Ks
- 95
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
Kyle Freeland grades poor (Pitching+ 95) vs Seth Lugo grades poor (Pitching+ 94)
KC LINEUP
1Carter Jensen (L)hit 74% · HR 28%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
74%
1+ HIT
38%
2+ HITS
28%
HOME RUN
55%
2+ BASES
40%
3+ BASES
32%
4+ BASES
45%
RBI
21%
2+ RBIs
58%
SCORES A RUN
2Lane Thomas (R)hit 69% · HR 17%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
69%
1+ HIT
31%
2+ HITS
17%
HOME RUN
44%
2+ BASES
28%
3+ BASES
20%
4+ BASES
36%
RBI
15%
2+ RBIs
52%
SCORES A RUN
3Jac Caglianone (L)hit 77% · HR 32%COLD·UNLUCKY›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
77%
1+ HIT
41%
2+ HITS
32%
HOME RUN
56%
2+ BASES
44%
3+ BASES
36%
4+ BASES
49%
RBI
26%
2+ RBIs
55%
SCORES A RUN
4Salvador Perez (R)hit 69% · HR 22%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
69%
1+ HIT
31%
2+ HITS
22%
HOME RUN
45%
2+ BASES
31%
3+ BASES
24%
4+ BASES
40%
RBI
20%
2+ RBIs
45%
SCORES A RUN
5Isaac Collins (S)hit 69% · HR 13%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
69%
1+ HIT
31%
2+ HITS
13%
HOME RUN
43%
2+ BASES
26%
3+ BASES
17%
4+ BASES
33%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
49%
SCORES A RUN
6Nick Loftin (R)hit 66% · HR 15%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
66%
1+ HIT
29%
2+ HITS
15%
HOME RUN
41%
2+ BASES
26%
3+ BASES
18%
4+ BASES
36%
RBI
16%
2+ RBIs
43%
SCORES A RUN
7Michael Massey (L)hit 67% · HR 14%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
67%
1+ HIT
28%
2+ HITS
14%
HOME RUN
40%
2+ BASES
24%
3+ BASES
17%
4+ BASES
34%
RBI
15%
2+ RBIs
44%
SCORES A RUN
8John Ravehit 67% · HR 20%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
67%
1+ HIT
30%
2+ HITS
20%
HOME RUN
45%
2+ BASES
30%
3+ BASES
23%
4+ BASES
38%
RBI
18%
2+ RBIs
50%
SCORES A RUN
9Tyler Tolbert (R)hit 70% · HR 20%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
70%
1+ HIT
31%
2+ HITS
20%
HOME RUN
45%
2+ BASES
30%
3+ BASES
23%
4+ BASES
39%
RBI
17%
2+ RBIs
51%
SCORES A RUN
COL LINEUP
1Jake McCarthy (L)hit 71% · HR 16%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
71%
1+ HIT
34%
2+ HITS
16%
HOME RUN
47%
2+ BASES
29%
3+ BASES
21%
4+ BASES
35%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
55%
SCORES A RUN
2Kyle Karros (R)hit 67% · HR 17%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
67%
1+ HIT
30%
2+ HITS
17%
HOME RUN
43%
2+ BASES
28%
3+ BASES
20%
4+ BASES
37%
RBI
15%
2+ RBIs
53%
SCORES A RUN
3TJ Rumfield (L)hit 70% · HR 16%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
70%
1+ HIT
32%
2+ HITS
16%
HOME RUN
43%
2+ BASES
27%
3+ BASES
20%
4+ BASES
39%
RBI
17%
2+ RBIs
52%
SCORES A RUN
4Hunter Goodman (R)hit 72% · HR 37%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
72%
1+ HIT
34%
2+ HITS
37%
HOME RUN
53%
2+ BASES
42%
3+ BASES
37%
4+ BASES
52%
RBI
30%
2+ RBIs
58%
SCORES A RUN
5Mickey Moniak (L)hit 72% · HR 33%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
72%
1+ HIT
36%
2+ HITS
33%
HOME RUN
54%
2+ BASES
43%
3+ BASES
35%
4+ BASES
48%
RBI
26%
2+ RBIs
55%
SCORES A RUN
6Cole Carrigg (S)hit 65% · HR 16%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
65%
1+ HIT
26%
2+ HITS
16%
HOME RUN
41%
2+ BASES
27%
3+ BASES
19%
4+ BASES
35%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
47%
SCORES A RUN
7Willi Castro (S)hit 64% · HR 16%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
64%
1+ HIT
25%
2+ HITS
16%
HOME RUN
38%
2+ BASES
24%
3+ BASES
18%
4+ BASES
35%
RBI
15%
2+ RBIs
41%
SCORES A RUN
8Tyler Freeman (R)hit 62% · HR 8%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
62%
1+ HIT
23%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
32%
2+ BASES
17%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
29%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
38%
SCORES A RUN
9Brenton Doylehit 61% · HR 13%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
61%
1+ HIT
23%
2+ HITS
13%
HOME RUN
36%
2+ BASES
22%
3+ BASES
16%
4+ BASES
32%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
43%
SCORES A RUN
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Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.
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169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
KC @ COL · full-game reads
Moneyline
KC to win
50%
1st 5 Innings
COL F5
48%
Game Total
Over 8.5
82%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
79%
Run Line
COL -1.5
37%
Team Total
KC Over 4.5
69%
Team Total
COL Over 4.5
68%
THE READ
The sim splits this one — 13.40 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.
- Projected runs: KC 6.82, COL 6.58
- Seth Lugo (KC) vs Kyle Freeland (COL)
- Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
Seth Lugo
KC SP · vs. COL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
24%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
12%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
5%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
80%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
49%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
82%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
73%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.3 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 3.3 strikeouts
- 24% to reach 5+ against COL
Kyle Freeland
COL SP · vs. KC
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
28%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
13%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
5%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
69%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
8%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
76%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
63%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.6 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 3.6 strikeouts
- 28% to reach 5+ against KC
Hunter Goodman
COL · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
37%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
57%
Total Bases
3+ bases
45%
Total Bases
4+ bases
39%
RBIs
1+ RBI
54%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
31%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 37% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Seth Lugo
Mickey Moniak
COL · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
33%
Hits
1+ hits
76%
Hits
2+ hits
38%
Total Bases
2+ bases
58%
Total Bases
3+ bases
45%
Total Bases
4+ bases
38%
RBIs
1+ RBI
50%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
27%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 33% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Seth Lugo
Jac Caglianone
KC · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
32%
Hits
1+ hits
80%
Hits
2+ hits
44%
Total Bases
2+ bases
60%
Total Bases
3+ bases
47%
Total Bases
4+ bases
39%
RBIs
1+ RBI
51%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
27%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 32% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
- Facing Kyle Freeland
Carter Jensen
KC · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
28%
Hits
1+ hits
78%
Hits
2+ hits
40%
Total Bases
2+ bases
59%
Total Bases
3+ bases
42%
Total Bases
4+ bases
34%
RBIs
1+ RBI
46%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
22%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 28% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Facing Kyle Freeland
Salvador Perez
KC · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
22%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
33%
Total Bases
4+ bases
26%
RBIs
1+ RBI
41%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
20%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 20% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Facing Kyle Freeland
Jake McCarthy
COL · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 36% against 32% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Facing Seth Lugo
TJ Rumfield
COL · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
34%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
40%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 73%.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Facing Seth Lugo
Tyler Tolbert
KC · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
73%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
32%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
40%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 73%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Kyle Freeland
John Rave
KC · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
20%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
48%
Total Bases
3+ bases
32%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 70%.
- Batting 8
- Facing Kyle Freeland
Isaac Collins
KC · bats S · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 72%.
- Batting 5 · bats S
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Kyle Freeland
Lane Thomas
KC · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 72%.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Facing Kyle Freeland
Michael Massey
KC · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 70%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Facing Kyle Freeland
Kyle Karros
COL · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
30%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 70%.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Seth Lugo
Nick Loftin
KC · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
37%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 69%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Facing Kyle Freeland
Cole Carrigg
COL · bats S · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 68% against 72%.
- Batting 6 · bats S
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Seth Lugo
Willi Castro
COL · bats S · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
16%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 67% against 72%.
- Batting 7 · bats S
- Facing Seth Lugo
Tyler Freeman
COL · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 65% against 72%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Seth Lugo
Brenton Doyle
COL · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 64% against 72%.
- Batting 9
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Seth Lugo
IV · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.