BETFLYAISIGN IN
DETROITDET
53-58 · +4 AL CENTRAL · W2 · 6-4 L10
@SAT 9:40 PM ETATH HOME PARK
45-66 · +4 AL WEST · L4 · 2-8 L10
ATH
Weather
—
Home plate ump
Louie Krupa K+0.0%
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 2-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Framber Valdez
LHP · DETPROBABLE
STUFF+102
ERA
4.41
IP
120.1
K/9
7.3
BB/9
3.2
WHIP
1.39
L5 STARTS5.95 ERA · 18.1% K · 7.8% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
46%
28%
20%
SinkerCurveballChangeupSlider
Jack Perkins
RHP · ATHPROBABLE
STUFF+101
ERA
6.72
IP
73.2
K/9
10.9
BB/9
3.4
WHIP
1.40
L5 STARTS8.79 ERA · 26% K · 10.6% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
37%
31%
17%
9%
4-Seam FastballSweeperChangeupCutterSinker
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETATH 53%

97 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 12

DET ATH

Game Markets

DET @ ATH · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

ATH to win

53%

1st 5 Innings

ATH F5

46%

Game Total

Over 8.5

51%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

53%

Run Line

ATH -1.5

36%

Team Total

DET Over 4.5

43%

Team Total

ATH Over 4.5

45%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 8.96 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: DET 4.44, ATH 4.52
  • Keider Montero (DET) vs Gage Jump (ATH)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
KM

Keider Montero

DET SP · vs. ATH

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

60%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

20%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

63%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

49%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 2.8 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 2.8 strikeouts
  • 15% to reach 5+ against ATH
GJ

Gage Jump

ATH SP · vs. DET

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

36%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

21%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

30%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

9%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

40%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

28%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 4.0 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 4.0 strikeouts
  • 36% to reach 5+ against DET
DD

Dillon Dingler

DET · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

26%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

50%

Total Bases

3+ bases

36%

Total Bases

4+ bases

30%

RBIs

1+ RBI

43%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

22%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 26% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing Gage Jump
ST

Spencer Torkelson

DET · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Facing Gage Jump
RG

Riley Greene

DET · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 23% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Gage Jump
KM

Kevin McGonigle

DET · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 27% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Gage Jump
GT

Gleyber Torres

DET · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.

  • Batting 2
  • Facing Gage Jump
CK

Colt Keith

DET · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Gage Jump
JB

Javier Báez

DET · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.

  • Batting 8
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Gage Jump
MC

Max Clark

DET · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 64%.

  • Batting 7
  • Facing Gage Jump
ZM

Zach McKinstry

DET · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 64%.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Gage Jump
— SPLITS THAT MATTER

FRAMBER VALDEZ SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ATH hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%15.3%OPS-against.735
vs Left-handedK%28.9%OPS-against.674
ATH vs RHP (team)OPS.726K%21.8%

JACK PERKINS SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how DET hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%23.1%OPS-against.810
vs Left-handedK%30.2%OPS-against.753
DET vs LHP (team)OPS.690K%22.8%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

ATH BATTERS vs FRAMBER VALDEZ

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

DET BATTERS vs JACK PERKINS

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
DET 2·ATH 0
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
DET 5·ATH 0
5 played · 14 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
93%DET
DET 50 · ATH 4 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-02DET 8-6
2026-08-01DET 13-1 · Blowout
2026-07-09DET 4-1
— MARKET SNAPSHOT

Market snapshot unavailable (no recent odds).

— LINEUP FORM · L15

DET OFFENSE

.337L15 team wOBA
+21 pts vs LG AVG · TOP 6

ATH OFFENSE

.316L15 team wOBA
0 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD
— ENVIRONMENT

Park factors unavailable.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH

Forecast loading — check back within 3 hours of first pitch.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE
KRUPA
Called K rate0.0% vs avg
Runs per 9—
Games this yr8

Low sample size — no strong tendency signal.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

ATH 53%

Mean score sim 4.4–4.5 · projected total 9.0 runs · pre-lineup estimate — refreshes when lineups post

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